(Berlin, 2026-02-06 02:31:00) — A recent “war game” simulation organized by the German newspaper Welt, in collaboration with the University of the Bundeswehr in Hamburg and the “German Wargaming Center,” has sparked debate about preparedness for potential conflict with Russia.
The simulation, which involved prominent political figures role-playing responses to a hypothetical Russian invasion of Lithuania in 2026, aims to “think through the emergency before it occurs,” according to Welt.
- The German newspaper Welt organized a large-scale war game simulation involving current and former German politicians.
- The scenario simulated a Russian invasion of Lithuania in late October 2026, prompting a crisis response from the German government.
- Critics argue the exercise contributes to a “war capability” mindset and lacks evidence of an actual Russian threat.
- The German military is also conducting its own wargaming exercises, emphasizing “warworthiness.”
The scenario, described as “purely fictional, but not taken out of thin air” by Welt, posits that Russian troops are positioned on the border with Lithuania, appearing ready to invade the NATO country. The simulation began with a simulated emergency meeting of the German Chancellor and key advisors, with one participant suggesting, “Maybe we should sink a ship.”
The Players and the Scenario
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Participants in the “Blue Team,” representing the German government, included Peter Tauber, former CDU general secretary, as Chancellor; Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU “foreign policy expert,” as Defense Minister; Michael Roth, former state minister for Europe, as Foreign Minister; and Irene Mihalic, parliamentary manager of the Greens, as Interior Minister. The opposing “Red Team,” representing the Kremlin, consisted of Alexander Gabuyev, a “Russian political expert”; Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst; and Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, an ex-diplomat. Welt explained that this composition was intended to “sharpen the understanding of the opposing logic, in our case that of the Kremlin.”
The simulation included scenarios involving Russian cyberattacks on German online banking and disinformation campaigns, with Welt arguing that Germany must identify and address its weaknesses before a crisis occurs. CDU MP Kiesewetter echoed this sentiment, stating on Thursday, “If you never want war again, you should never be defenseless again,” according to the dpa news agency.
Criticism and Concerns
The exercise has drawn criticism from peace activists and opposition politicians. Cornelia Mannewitz, federal spokeswoman for the German Peace Society – United War Resisters Association (DFG-VK), told jW that the idea of a Russian attack on NATO is unfounded, stating, “NATO is superior in many ways. There is no evidence that Russia is preparing an attack.” She further characterized the project as a contribution to “war capability,” adding, “But wars are deadly.”
Ulrich Thoden, defense policy spokesman for the Die Linke faction in the Bundestag, criticized the involvement of Peter Tauber, calling him a “chief lobbyist” and describing the war games as “perverted” and in need of being stopped. Thoden argued that efforts should focus on preventing war, not preparing for it, according to a Thursday jW inquiry.
Broader Trends in German Military Preparedness
The Welt simulation is not an isolated event. The German military itself is increasing its focus on wargaming. In the foreword to the 2024 “Bundeswehr Wargaming Manual,” Inspector General Carsten Breuer wrote, “Why do we need wargaming in the Bundeswehr right now? The answer to that is simple. Warworthiness.”
Why It Matters
The increasing prevalence of wargaming exercises in Germany reflects a growing concern within the country’s political and military establishment regarding potential threats from Russia. While proponents argue these simulations are crucial for preparedness, critics worry they contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy, normalizing the idea of conflict and potentially escalating tensions. The debate highlights a fundamental division in German society regarding the appropriate response to perceived external threats and the balance between defense and diplomacy.
