Oklahoma City is a commanding 13-point favorite as the Thunder host the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night, February 12, in their final game before the 2026 NBA All-Star break.
Thunder Dominate, But Injuries Loom Large
Both teams are navigating key injuries as they head into the All-Star break, with Oklahoma City looking to maintain its impressive home record.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-13) lead the Northwest Division and boast a stellar 22-5 record at Paycom Center.
- Milwaukee (22-30), fourth in the Central Division, struggles on the road at 10-18.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ryan Rollins are sidelined for the Bucks, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell will miss the game for Oklahoma City.
- The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Under on the 214.5-point total, hitting in three of the last four meetings between these teams.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The all-time series is knotted at 77-77, though the Thunder have won the last four matchups. The over/under is set at 214.5 points.
Injury Reports Shape the Matchup
Milwaukee will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Ryan Rollins (foot) for this contest. Oklahoma City faces its own challenges, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen), Jalen Williams (hamstring), and Ajay Mitchell (abdomen) are all unavailable. These absences significantly impact both teams’ offensive capabilities.
What’s the best bet for Bucks vs. Thunder? The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this game 10,000 times and identified a strong play.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated well over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons, is on a 38-17 run on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season.
Model Predicts a Low-Scoring Affair
After simulating the game 10,000 times, the model is leaning toward the Under on the total (214.5). The Under has been a successful bet in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between Milwaukee and Oklahoma City. It has also hit in two of Milwaukee’s last three games.
The model projects Milwaukee’s Cameron Thomas to score 19.7 points, with five Bucks players reaching double figures. For Oklahoma City, Chet Holmgren is projected to score 19.7 points, as six Thunder players are expected to contribute 11.3 or more points.
The model has also identified an against-the-spread pick that is hitting at a rate of over 60% of simulations.
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Bucks vs. Thunder spread: |
Oklahoma City -13 |
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Bucks vs. Thunder over/under: |
214.5 points |
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Bucks vs. Thunder money line: |
Milwaukee +486, Oklahoma City -680 |
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Bucks vs. Thunder picks: |
See picks at SportsLine |
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Bucks vs. Thunder streaming: |
Prime Video |
