The start of a new semester in Iran is unfolding against a backdrop of simmering discontent, as students return to campuses while continuing to voice opposition to the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since Saturday, February 21st, images and videos of student protests have circulated online, with reports from witnesses at seven Iranian universities detailing memorial ceremonies held for those killed during the January protests.
While these demonstrations are smaller in scale than those seen last month, the underlying anger and frustration remain palpable. Students are reportedly chanting slogans against the government, including “Death to the Dictator” and “Death to the Islamic Republic,” and some are even calling for the restoration of the monarchy under the exiled crown prince, Reza Pahlavi. This resurgence of monarchist sentiment, reported by Iran’s state-controlled Fars News Agency, highlights the fractured nature of the opposition movement.
The protests are occurring amidst a heightened atmosphere of surveillance and repression. Members of the Basij, a paramilitary group within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are now reportedly stationed at universities, checking student IDs, monitoring attendance, and recording the duration of their presence on campus. This increased security presence underscores the regime’s determination to suppress dissent, following its forceful crackdown on earlier protests.
The January protests, sparked by economic grievances and political restrictions, were met with a brutal response from security forces, resulting in a significant number of deaths. While the exact number of casualties remains disputed, with some reports suggesting over 30,000, the scale of the repression has fueled widespread anger and a demand for accountability. Some Iranians are even expressing a desire for intervention from the United States, hoping for targeted action against those responsible for the violence, a sentiment reflecting a deep sense of desperation, according to a sociologist at the University of Tehran who spoke anonymously to Deutsche Welle (DW).
Growing Fears of Regional Conflict
The situation is further complicated by escalating tensions between Iran and the United States. President Donald Trump has previously threatened military action against Iran in response to its crackdown on protesters and its nuclear program. Iran, in turn, has warned of a “harsh response” to any attack. These threats come ahead of scheduled negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Geneva on February 26th, focused on Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. Is demanding Iran halt its uranium enrichment capabilities, while Iran maintains its program is for peaceful purposes.
Matthew Hoh, a former U.S. Marine captain and analyst at the Center for International Policy, believes the possibility of war with Iran is high, citing increased U.S. Military presence in the Middle East. He suggests that avoiding conflict may now require Iran’s surrender, according to a DW report. This assessment reflects a growing concern that miscalculation or escalation could quickly spiral into a wider regional conflict.
The Future of Iran’s Regime
Analysts are skeptical that military intervention would lead to a democratic outcome in Iran. Kamran Matin, a lecturer in International Relations at Sussex University, points to a shift in U.S. Foreign policy, as outlined in the November 2023 National Security Strategy document, which signals a decreased focus on “nation-building” and a greater emphasis on competition with China. Without a viable political alternative to the current regime, a deal with the existing government may be the most realistic option for the U.S.
Damon Golriz, a strategy analyst at the Institute for Geopolitical Studies, also doubts that a U.S. Attack would pave the way for a secular democracy. He notes the regime’s resilience in suppressing dissent, even after reportedly killing over 30,000 protesters without significant internal defections. He suggests that a more likely outcome is a military dictatorship or, in the worst-case scenario, state collapse and regional war.
The protests, while currently smaller in scale, represent a significant challenge to the legitimacy of the Iranian leadership. The regime’s response to the January protests was the harshest criticism it has faced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the underlying grievances that fueled those protests remain unaddressed.
As negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Approach, the situation remains volatile. The outcome of these talks, and the broader geopolitical context, will be crucial in determining the future of Iran and the stability of the region. The next key date to watch is February 26th, when representatives from Tehran and Washington are scheduled to meet in Geneva.
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