The escalating conflict in the Middle East is sending ripples far beyond the region, with the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warning of a potential surge in global hunger levels not seen since the start of the war in Ukraine. The WFP estimates that an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity if the conflict persists and oil prices remain high, bringing the total number of food-insecure individuals to 363 million. This unfolding crisis is not simply a humanitarian concern within the immediate conflict zone. it’s a threat to global food systems and economic stability.
The immediate impact is being felt through displacement, rising prices, and disrupted supply chains. But the crisis extends beyond these direct consequences. The Middle East’s critical role in global energy and trade means that disruptions in the region have a cascading effect, increasing hunger risks worldwide. The situation is particularly concerning for countries reliant on imports, especially in Africa and Asia, where access to affordable food is already precarious.
Fertilizer Shortages Threaten Future Harvests
A key, and often overlooked, component of global food security is fertilizer. Roughly a quarter of the world’s fertilizer supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway now facing increased instability. Disruptions to this flow could have devastating consequences for crop yields, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where more than half of agricultural fertilizer used is nitrogen-based, according to research fellow Robert Walker at the Lowy Institute. The potential shortage of urea, a crucial form of nitrogen fertilizer, is a major concern.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that around 35% of the world’s urea supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to these concerns, Reuters reported, citing sources, that China may be clamping down on fertilizer exports to safeguard its domestic supply, a move that would further strain global markets already grappling with shortages. Even as not officially confirmed by Beijing, this potential restriction underscores the growing anxieties surrounding fertilizer availability.
Oil Prices and Supply Chain Disruptions
Escalating attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have significantly hampered ship transits, driving up oil prices. On Thursday, oil reached $115 a barrel, increasing transport, energy, and insurance costs across global supply chains. These increased costs are not absorbed by shipping companies; they are passed on to consumers, exacerbating food price inflation and making essential goods less accessible to vulnerable populations.
The impact is being felt across diverse sectors. In Australia, concerns are mounting for dairy farmers, who import approximately 90% of their transport fuels. Ben Bennett, President of the Australian Dairy Farmers advocacy group, warned, “Dairy cows cannot simply be switched off or milk stored indefinitely on farm. If milk tankers stop running because fuel is unavailable or unaffordable, farmers face serious animal health and environmental consequences.”
Beyond the Middle East: A Global Crisis
The WFP’s warning extends beyond the immediate region, highlighting the interconnectedness of global food systems. In sub-Saharan Africa, farmers preparing for the planting season are at risk of being unable to afford essential fertilizers, potentially leading to lower yields and higher food prices in the coming months. The WFP emphasizes that even small increases in costs can push already vulnerable families into crisis.
“As violence escalates, displacement, rising prices and disrupted food systems are pushing families closer towards hunger in the region and far beyond,” the WFP said on its website Thursday. The organization’s analysis suggests that the current situation risks mirroring the global hunger crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine in 2022, when 349 million people were impacted.
What’s Next?
The situation remains fluid and highly dependent on the trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East. The WFP continues to monitor the situation closely, assessing the evolving needs and adjusting its response accordingly. The next key indicator will be whether the conflict escalates further or begins to de-escalate by the middle of the year, as well as the sustained price of oil. The agency is urging increased international cooperation to address the growing humanitarian crisis and prevent a widespread food security catastrophe.
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