The war in Iran, which began with a massive joint air campaign by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026, is rapidly reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and sending ripples through the global economy. The conflict, now impacting at least a dozen countries, has seen the deaths of numerous Iranian political leaders, including the 86-year-classic Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and significant damage to critical infrastructure. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, threatening a global recession as the Strait of Hormuz faces closure and potential mining, disrupting vital shipping lanes.
A recent roundtable discussion hosted by the Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP) brought together experts to analyze the social dynamics and broader implications of the escalating conflict. Participants explored how the war is impacting ordinary Iranians, the shifting regional power balance, and the opaque objectives driving the U.S. Administration’s involvement alongside Israel’s assertive actions. The conversation, recorded on March 11, 2026, featured insights from Ida Nikou, a sociologist and author specializing in Iranian social unrest; Arang Keshavarzian, a professor of Middle East and Islamic Studies at New York University; and Sean Yom, an associate professor of political science at Temple University.
The Human Cost and Internal Shifts in Iran
Ida Nikou, whose recent operate examines the impact of sanctions and austerity on Iranian society, highlighted the pre-existing vulnerabilities within Iran that are being exacerbated by the war. “The war isn’t happening in a vacuum,” Nikou explained, referencing her article “Governing Crisis–Sanctions, Austerity and Social Unrest in Iran”. “Years of economic pressure and internal political repression have created a highly fragile social fabric. The conflict is intensifying existing grievances and creating new ones.” The deaths of key leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have triggered a power struggle within the Iranian government, the outcome of which remains uncertain.
The roundtable participants noted the difficulty in assessing the full extent of the internal upheaval within Iran, given the government’s tight control over information. However, reports suggest widespread disruption to daily life, shortages of essential goods, and increased security measures. Retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes have targeted military and civilian infrastructure in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, and Oman, further escalating tensions and raising the specter of a wider regional war.
Regional Realignment and the Role of the Gulf States
Arang Keshavarzian, author of “Making Space for the Gulf: Histories of Regionalism and the Middle East,” focused on the shifting dynamics within the Gulf region. He argued that the war is exposing the long-held assumptions about U.S. Security guarantees and the reliance of Gulf states on American protection. “The perceived opacity of the U.S. War aims is deeply unsettling for many Gulf states,” Keshavarzian stated. “They are questioning whether the U.S. Is truly committed to their security or if it is pursuing its own agenda, potentially at their expense.”
Mira Al Hussein, writing for Hidden Cities, echoes this sentiment, arguing that “The Iran War Has Exposed the Gulf’s Bet on US Protections.” The closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, has had a particularly acute impact on Gulf economies, driving up prices and threatening economic stability. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, in a Foreign Policy article published March 4, 2026, “The Iran War is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy,” details the cascading economic consequences of the disruption to oil flows.
The Broader Context and U.S. Strategy
Sean Yom, specializing in Jordanian politics, brought a broader historical perspective to the discussion, emphasizing the long-standing U.S. Involvement in the region. He pointed to Andrew J. Bacevich’s work, America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History, as providing crucial context for understanding the current conflict. “This war is not an isolated event,” Yom argued. “It is the latest chapter in a decades-long series of U.S. Interventions in the Middle East, often with unintended and destabilizing consequences.”
The roundtable participants expressed concern about the lack of clarity surrounding the U.S. Administration’s objectives. The attacks on Lebanon, the blockade of Gaza, and the restrictions on movement in the West Bank, occurring concurrently with the war in Iran, suggest a broader strategy aimed at reshaping the regional order, but the ultimate goals remain unclear. Marc Lynch, in his book America’s Middle East: The Ruination of a Region, provides a critical analysis of the historical patterns of U.S. Policy in the region.
Looking Ahead
The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The immediate focus is on containing the conflict and preventing it from spreading to other countries. However, the long-term consequences of the war are likely to be profound, reshaping the political landscape of the Middle East and impacting the global economy for years to come. Further analysis from scholars like Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, who wrote “The Dry and the Wet Burn Together,” and Ervand Abrahamian, with his article “Iran Under Fire,” will be crucial in understanding the evolving dynamics. The next key development to watch will be the outcome of the Iranian government’s internal power struggle and the formation of a new leadership structure.
This is a developing story. We encourage readers to share their perspectives and engage in constructive dialogue in the comments section below.
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