AUSTIN, Texas – A new poll released today is sending ripples through Texas political circles, suggesting that state Representative James Talarico is unexpectedly competitive in the upcoming U.S. Senate race. The survey, conducted by Impact Research, shows the Democrat with a narrow lead over both incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are currently locked in a contentious runoff election. The findings challenge conventional wisdom about the state’s political landscape and raise the possibility of a serious challenge to Republican dominance in November.
The poll, which surveyed roughly 900 likely General Election voters in Texas via telephone between March 12 and March 17, 2026, indicates Talarico besting Cornyn by three percentage points, 43% to 41%. Against Paxton, Talarico’s lead is even slimmer, at 44% to 43%. What we have is particularly notable given that Paxton and Cornyn are still battling for the Republican nomination, with a runoff election scheduled for May 26th. The results suggest that either Republican nominee could face a surprisingly tough fight against the Austin Democrat.
Republican Runoff Reveals Fractures
The Impact Research poll similarly sheds light on the dynamics of the Republican runoff. Voters currently favoring Paxton lead Cornyn by a 16-point margin, with 53% supporting the Attorney General compared to 37% for the Senator, according to the poll data available at DDHQ. Though, the poll reveals a significant weakness for both candidates: widespread unpopularity among Republican voters. A majority – 57% – view Paxton unfavorably, while 60% hold an unfavorable opinion of Cornyn.
This dissatisfaction extends to independent voters, a crucial swing demographic in Texas elections. The poll found that 63% of independents view Paxton unfavorably and 65% view Cornyn unfavorably. “Such low ratings among this critical voting bloc will make it incredibly tricky for Paxton or Cornyn to win over the swing voters they necessitate to prevail in November,” the poll memo stated. The challenge for both Republicans will be to consolidate their base while simultaneously appealing to a broader electorate.
Talarico’s Path to November
James Talarico, first elected to the Texas House in 2018, has built a reputation as a pragmatic Democrat focused on issues like education and economic opportunity. He successfully navigated a competitive Democratic primary, defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett to secure his party’s nomination. His campaign has focused on appealing to moderate voters and highlighting the perceived extremism of both Republican candidates.
While Talarico’s current lead is slight, the poll suggests he is well-positioned to capitalize on the divisions within the Republican party. The key to his success will be maintaining his appeal to independent voters and persuading moderate Republicans disillusioned with Paxton and Cornyn. He will also need to effectively contrast his vision for Texas with what he portrays as the more conservative agendas of his opponents.
Historical Context and Shifting Demographics
Texas has been trending more competitive in recent election cycles, driven by demographic shifts and increasing urbanization. While still considered a reliably Republican state, the margin of victory for Republican candidates has narrowed in recent years. The state’s growing Latino population and influx of residents from other states have contributed to a more diverse and politically engaged electorate. The 2020 presidential election saw President Biden come within a closer margin of victory in Texas than any Democrat in decades.
However, turning Texas “blue” remains a significant challenge. The state’s political culture is deeply rooted in conservatism, and Republicans still hold a substantial advantage in statewide offices. The outcome of the May 26th runoff election will be crucial in determining whether Talarico has a realistic path to victory in November. The runoff will also serve as a bellwether for the direction of the Republican party in Texas, signaling whether voters are prioritizing ideological purity or electability.
The latest polling data, coupled with the ongoing Republican runoff, paints a complex picture of the Texas Senate race. While Talarico’s slight lead is encouraging for Democrats, the race is far from over. The next key date is May 26th, when Republican voters will decide between Paxton and Cornyn. The winner of that contest will then face Talarico in a general election that promises to be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
We will continue to monitor the race and provide updates as they become available. Share your thoughts on the poll results and the future of Texas politics in the comments below.
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