The global community has long monitored the Strait of Hormuz as the critical artery for the world’s energy flows, but a more quiet and potentially more devastating crisis is unfolding within the same narrow waters. Beyond the oil and gas, the waterway is a vital conduit for the fertilisers that sustain global harvests and a near-total shipping blockade is now threatening to trigger a systemic collapse in food production.
Approximately one-third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser passes through this maritime choke point. It also serves as the route for 20% of the natural gas shipments required to manufacture these products. With shipping now reduced to a trickle, international observers are warning that the region has become a Gulf fertiliser blockade that could destabilize food prices for years to come.
David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee, described the situation this week as a “food security timebomb,” warning that the window to prevent a massive global hunger crisis is rapidly closing. The World Trade Organization has identified fertilisers as the primary issue of concern, while the UN World Food Programme cautioned that acute hunger could hit record numbers this year if the conflict persists.
The mechanics of a maritime choke point
The Gulf is not merely a transit route; it is one of the world’s most concentrated hubs for fertiliser production. In 2024, roughly 16 million tonnes of fertilisers were transported by sea from the region, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This includes critical exports of urea—the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser—where Iran ranks as the fourth-largest global exporter, trailing only Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
The vulnerability of the supply chain is highlighted by the status of the Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO). As the world’s largest single site for urea exports, QAFCO supplies 14% of the global urea market. However, the facility has been offline for nearly a month after Qatar closed its gas plants following Iranian strikes. Because Doha lacks an alternative export route for urea outside the Strait of Hormuz, the production halt has immediate global implications.
Beyond finished products, the Middle East provides about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a raw material essential for fertiliser manufacture as well as industrial chemicals and metal production. Since Iran began threatening shipping, the transit of ammonia, nitrogen, and sulphur has slowed to a trickle, leaving plants worldwide struggling to secure the ingredients necessary for synthetic fertilisers.
A ‘double shock’ to global agriculture
The crisis is creating what the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization calls a “double shock”: the simultaneous surge of fertiliser and fuel prices. This mirrors the volatility seen after the 2008 oil price spike and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, both of which sent agricultural costs soaring.
Price benchmarks are already reflecting the instability. According to the CRU Group, a commodity price consultancy, Egyptian urea prices have risen by more than 60%, climbing from approximately $484 per tonne in late February to $780 per tonne.
| Metric | Pre-Conflict / Baseline | Current Status / Peak | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egyptian Urea Price | ~$484 / tonne | $780 / tonne | CRU Group |
| QAFCO Urea Supply | 14% of global market | Offline (~1 month) | Industry Data |
| Sulphur Trade Share | ~45% of global trade | Severely disrupted | UNCTAD |
Chris Lawson, vice-president of market intelligence and prices at CRU, described the current market as being in a state of “paralysis,” with buyers waiting for the conflict to conclude in hopes that prices will drop. While some analysts note that prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potash have not yet reached the extreme peaks of 2022, they caution that the pressure on supply remains intense.
Who is most at risk?
The impact of the Gulf fertiliser blockade is not distributed evenly. The level of risk depends on a nation’s reliance on Gulf imports and the timing of their local agricultural cycle. While farmers in North America and Europe had already secured much of their spring planting supplies, other regions are entering a critical window.
Australia is particularly vulnerable, as the majority of its fertiliser shipments typically arrive between April and June. Similarly, India—the world’s second-largest fertiliser user after China—is facing risks as the sowing season for wheat and rice approaches. India relies on the Gulf for both finished products and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) needed to produce its own fertilisers.
The most acute danger, however, exists in the least developed economies. Nations including Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Sudan, as well as South Asian countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are heavily dependent on Gulf imports. These economies have the lowest capacity to absorb price shocks, meaning increased costs for fertiliser quickly translate into higher prices for household staples like bread, rice, and pasta.
Limited alternatives and diplomatic hurdles
Attempts to mitigate the shortage have so far yielded little result. The U.S. Government has moved to loosen sanctions on Belarusian potash producers and suspended certain sanctions on Russian oil to ease economic pressure. However, analysts suggest these moves will not significantly increase global supplies.
The primary constraint is capacity. Russia, which continues to export fertiliser to markets outside of Europe and North America, has highly little spare capacity to ramp up production to meet the deficit created by the Gulf blockade. Global fertiliser plants are facing a storage crisis; they may soon be forced to curtail production if they cannot transport existing stock away or receive the raw materials needed to preserve lines running.
While global commodity markets for wheat and other crops have not yet seen a price spike—largely because the Middle East is not a primary exporter of these grains—the long-term outlook is precarious. If the trade routes remain upended for several months, the decline in crop yields due to lack of synthetic nitrogen will likely trigger a secondary wave of food inflation.
The immediate focus for international monitors now shifts to the diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Until a resolution is reached, the global agricultural sector remains in a state of precarious waiting, with the next critical checkpoint being the arrival of the April-June shipping window for the Southern Hemisphere.
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