The cobblestones of Flanders have a way of humbling the most confident of riders, but as the peloton converges for Sunday’s race, the atmosphere is defined less by humility and more by a high-stakes psychological game. For the Tour of Flanders favourites, the race is already being fought in press rooms and during reconnaissance rides, where every word is weighed for tactical intent.
While the field is deep with talent, the conversation has narrowed to a “Big Four”—Tadej Pogačar, Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, and the late-entry disruptor, Remco Evenepoel. The arrival of Evenepoel, whose participation was confirmed only after a period of calculated silence, has shifted the gravity of the event, turning a clash of titans into a complex puzzle of national loyalty and individual ambition.
Most of the contenders have spent the week acclimating to the Belgian wind and the jarring rhythm of the hellingen. The notable exception is three-time winner Mathieu van der Poel, who opted for a secluded training block in Spain to maintain his peak. His absence from the local buzz has not diminished his status; rather, it has left a void that the other favourites are eager to fill with their own narratives.
Remco Evenepoel and the art of the surprise
Remco Evenepoel has spent the last week as the focal point of the cycling world’s attention. His debut in the Tour of Flanders was announced on April 1, a timing that many initially dismissed as an April Fool’s prank. By the time the announcement was verified, the narrative had shifted from whether he would race to how his presence alters the tactical landscape of the Ronde van Vlaanderen.
Evenepoel admitted to a deliberate digital detox to avoid the noise surrounding his entry. “I deliberately got rid of my social media for the past two weeks before all this fuss. I was able to relax and enjoy how we ripped you off,” Evenepoel said during a Friday press conference. He acknowledged the inherent risk of entering a cobbled Monument without a preparatory race in his legs, noting that the team waited as long as possible to make the call.
Despite his status as a debutant, Evenepoel is not treating the race as a learning experience. When asked if he felt capable of winning, his response was blunt: “Do I feel like I can win? Otherwise, I wouldn’t be starting here.”
Although, the Belgian star remains realistic about his standing relative to the seasoned specialists. He noted that while his physical capabilities are on par with the top tier, his lack of experience on this specific course is a variable he cannot ignore. “Mathieu, Tadej, and Wout have already proven enough that they can win or are capable of winning here,” Evenepoel said. “In terms of capabilities, I can come close to them, but due to a lack of experience, I will place myself below them regardless.”
The champion’s perspective
Tadej Pogačar, the reigning champion and a rider known for his versatility across all terrains, has viewed Evenepoel’s entry with a mix of curiosity and caution. In a recent podcast appearance, Pogačar mentioned he was “a little bit surprised and a little bit not” by the Belgian’s decision to race.
Pogačar’s primary concern is not Evenepoel’s raw power, but his unpredictability. The Slovenian champion noted that Evenepoel has a tendency to attack in unconventional locations, making him a dangerous variable in a race that is often decided by a single, well-timed move. This unpredictability adds a layer of tension to the chase, as the other favourites must decide whether to follow a “novice” or trust in their own experience.
The dynamic between these two is particularly pointed following the 2025 Amstel Gold Race, where Evenepoel finished third after attempting to chase down a dominant Pogačar. That encounter serves as a psychological blueprint for Sunday: Evenepoel knows he can stay in the conversation, and Pogačar knows that the Belgian will not be intimidated by the champion’s jersey.
The myth of the Belgian alliance
With three of the world’s best riders hailing from Belgium, speculation has mounted regarding a tactical alliance. The theory suggests that Evenepoel, Van der Poel, and Van Aert might cooperate to neutralize Pogačar, effectively creating a national front to maintain the trophy on home soil.
Evenepoel has dismissed this notion entirely. He argues that the nature of a Monument—especially one as grueling as Flanders—makes such cooperation nearly impossible once the race reaches its climax. “No… Everyone wants to win,” Evenepoel said. “In finales it is man against man and the strongest will win. I don’t think allies demand to be sought. Here, the strongest always rides away.”
This “every man for himself” mentality is typical of the UCI WorldTour‘s elite, where individual glory outweighs national synergy in the final kilometers. The race is expected to be decided on the steepest cobbled climbs, where the attrition rate is highest and the ability to sustain a massive effort is the only currency that matters.
Comparative Outlook: The Big Four
| Rider | Status | Primary Strength | Key Variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | Reigning Champ | All-terrain power | Defending title pressure |
| M. Van der Poel | 3-Time Winner | Cobble mastery | Spain training form |
| Wout van Aert | Specialist | Tactical versatility | Positioning in finale |
| R. Evenepoel | Debutant | Unpredictability | Lack of course experience |
What remains unknown
Despite the chatter, several critical factors remain opaque. The exact form of Mathieu van der Poel is a mystery, as he has avoided the public eye. Similarly, the chemistry between Evenepoel and his support riders, including Jan Tratnik, has yet to be tested under the pressure of a Monument. While Evenepoel has won De Brabantse Pijl and showed early promise in his youth at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, the jump to the Tour of Flanders is a significant leap in both distance and intensity.
The race will ultimately hinge on whether the “Big Four” enter a stalemate or if one rider is willing to risk everything on a long-range attack. As the riders take their marks on Sunday, the words spoken in the press conferences will be replaced by the sound of tires on stone and the heavy breathing of athletes pushing toward the finish line.
The next official checkpoint will be the final team presentations on Saturday evening, where the riders will face the media one last time before the start signal.
Who do you think will prevail on the cobbles this Sunday? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
