The announcement that Vice President JD Vance would visit Budapest just days before Hungarians head to the polls was met with an unusual level of digital enthusiasm. In a social media post confirming the trip, Balázs Orbán, the political director for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, used four exclamation marks and three emojis to signal the arrival: “!!Official!!”
The visit, which includes Vance’s wife, Usha, is widely interpreted as a high-profile effort to bolster a leader who is currently trailing in the polls. Though, the United States is not the only global power attempting to secure Orbán’s tenure. Russian intelligence agencies and linked disinformation networks are also alleged to be working behind the scenes to influence the outcome, creating a strange geopolitical alignment.
This convergence raises a fundamental question for diplomats and analysts: Why US and Russia are backing Viktor Orbán in Hungary election despite their own deep-seated rivalry? Whereas the two superpowers are competing on a global stage, they appear to have found a rare point of agreement in the necessity of keeping the man who famously described Hungary as a “petri dish for illiberalism” in power.
Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, notes the irony of the situation. “If you would have asked me five years ago: ‘Would that happen?’ I would certainly say no,” Shapiro said. He suggests that while the US and Russia continue their traditional rivalry, they are aligning ideologically around a “white nationalist Christian civilisational ethic.”
An Ideological Pivot in Washington
For the Trump administration, the support for Viktor Orbán is rooted less in strategic necessity and more in a shared vision of governance. Donald Trump has frequently lauded Orbán as a “strong and powerful leader” and a “fantastic guy.” To those within Trump’s inner circle, Hungary is often depicted as a “Christian conservative Disneyland,” a model for the kind of nationalist, traditionalist society they wish to see reflected in the West.
This ideological alignment has led to a significant shift in US foreign policy toward Budapest. In February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed an explicit commitment to Orbán’s political survival. “I can say to you with confidence that President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success,” Rubio told Orbán during a press conference.
Rubio further noted that if Orbán faced significant struggles, the Trump administration would be “highly interested” in finding ways to assist, asserting that it is in the US national interest for Orbán to remain the leader of the country.
This current stance marks a sharp departure from previous Republican positions. In 2019, a letter sent to then-President Trump—which included Rubio as a signatory—expressed deep concern over Hungary’s “downward democratic trajectory” and its cozy relationship with the Kremlin. Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, suggests that the Republican Party has fundamentally transformed under Trump, leaving those who previously questioned Orbán’s reliability as a partner “much quieter now.”
Russia’s Strategic Imperative
While the US motivation is ideological, Russia’s support for Orbán is viewed by experts as a cold, strategic calculation. For Moscow, Orbán serves as a critical “fifth column” within the European Union and NATO—a leader capable of blocking, slowing, or derailing consensus on policies that harm Russian interests.
This utility has been evidenced by Orbán’s repeated friction with Brussels. Most notably, Orbán has refused to sign off on a €90bn loan to Ukraine, a move that directly benefits the Kremlin’s war efforts. Allegations have emerged that Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, routinely communicated with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to share confidential details from EU meetings—interactions Szijjártó later characterized as “diplomacy.”
The lengths to which Russia is allegedly going to ensure an Orbán victory are extreme. Reports have surfaced suggesting that Russian intelligence operatives proposed staging an assassination attempt on Orbán to create a sympathy wave and bolster his electoral chances. Disinformation networks linked to Russia have been active in publishing content designed to undermine Orbán’s primary political challenger.
The Cost of Illiberalism
The international support for Orbán stands in stark contrast to the internal and regional reality of his governance. Hungary has seen a precipitous decline in press freedom and has faced formal accusations that it is no longer a full democracy. According to Transparency International, Hungary has become the most corrupt country in the European Union.
This domestic decay has created a volatile environment as the country prepares for the ballot. Many Hungarians are currently struggling with economic stagnation, crumbling social services, and a series of political scandals. These factors have contributed to a shift in the polls, where Orbán’s Fidesz party is currently trailing the center-right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar.
The tension has also reached a boiling point in the US Senate. A bipartisan pair of senators recently introduced legislation calling for sanctions on senior Hungarian officials if Budapest continues to obstruct aid to Ukraine or remains dependent on Russian oil and gas. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, described JD Vance’s visit as “beyond belief,” arguing that the US should not provide an electoral boost to a government that helps fund Russia’s war machine.
Summary of Differing Motivations for Orbán’s Support
| Actor | Primary Motivation | Key Objective |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Administration | Ideological Alignment | Promote “Christian conservative” governance model. |
| Russian Federation | Strategic Imperative | Maintain a “fifth column” to disrupt EU/NATO unity. |
| EU Institutions | Democratic Norms | Restore rule of law and press freedom in Hungary. |
A Warning for European Democracy
Beyond the immediate result of the election, the support for Orbán signals a broader shift in how global platforms and political figures interact with European democracies. Dalibor Rohac warns that the “age of Trump” may introduce new forms of interference. He suggests that Europeans should be concerned not only about Russian meddling but also whether US-based platforms, such as Elon Musk’s X, could be weaponized to influence election campaigns in Europe.
Whether the combined efforts of Washington and Moscow can overcome the domestic headwinds facing Fidesz remains to be seen. As the election nears, the world will be watching to see if the “petri dish for illiberalism” continues to expand or if the Hungarian electorate chooses a different path.
The next major checkpoint will be the official tally of the votes and the subsequent reaction from the White House and the Kremlin, which will clarify the extent to which these foreign interventions successfully swayed the outcome.
What do you think about the role of foreign influence in European elections? Share your thoughts in the comments or share this story on social media.
