Democratic candidates and allies secured a series of decisive victories and unexpected overperformances on Tuesday, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape of two key swing states. From a commanding win on the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a surprising surge in a deep-red Georgia congressional district, the Wisconsin and Georgia election results suggest a broadening coalition for Democrats that transcends traditional partisan boundaries.
In Wisconsin, Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor claimed a seat on the state’s high court in a rout that exceeded most expectations. Taylor defeated fellow Court of Appeals Judge Maria Lazar with an approximate 60%-40% share of the vote, a margin that nearly doubles the victory gaps seen in recent liberal wins in the state. The victory further solidifies a 5-2 liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, placing the court in a structurally strong position for years to come.
While the headlines focused on the win, the underlying data reveals a more complex story of realignment. Taylor became the first Democratic-aligned candidate since 2015 to carry a majority of the state’s counties, winning 42 of 72. This coalition included 29 counties that had previously voted for Donald Trump in 2024, indicating a rare level of ticket-splitting in an era of intense national polarization.
The Erosion of the ‘WOW’ Counties
The most striking element of Taylor’s victory was the movement in the suburbs of Milwaukee. For years, the “WOW” counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—served as a reliable firewall for conservative candidates. Tuesday’s results suggest that firewall is crumbling.
Ozaukee County flipped to Taylor, while Waukesha County, which once provided three-to-one margins for Republicans, saw Lazar win by only 54%-46%. In contrast, Washington County remained a conservative stronghold, emerging as the most conservative county in the state by giving Lazar over 60% of the vote. This divergence suggests that the “WOW” grouping may no longer be an electorally cohesive unit.
Turnout for the race reached approximately 1.5 million votes. While this is a significant drop from the 2.36 million cast in the 2025 contest, it remains robust by historical standards and closely mirrors the turnout of the 2020 race. The dip is largely attributed to a lack of national attention compared to the previous year’s high-spending battle.
The geographic shift was not limited to the suburbs. Taylor saw massive swings in the Northwoods and the southwestern corner of the state. In five smaller counties—Florence, Burnett, Forest, Iron, and Grant—Taylor outperformed the previous liberal victor, Justice Susan Crawford, by more than 20 percentage points.
Democratic Surge in Deep-Red Georgia
The momentum extended to northwestern Georgia, though the result there was a victory for Republicans. In the runoff to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14, Air Force veteran Clay Fuller secured the seat. However, the margin of victory was unexpectedly slim, with Fuller winning by less than 12 points.
The real story in GA-14 was the Democratic overperformance. Marine veteran Shawn Harris, who led the initial jungle primary with over 37% of the vote, helped drive a 25-point swing compared to the 2024 presidential results. In a district where Donald Trump previously won by 37 points, this represents the largest U.S. House-level Democratic special election overperformance of the current term, with the minor exception of a previous primary in Texas’ 18th district.
Local trends suggest the Atlanta metropolitan area’s political influence is creeping further into the rural northwest. In Paulding County, for example, Republicans held a dozen-point lead in the primary but saw that lead vanish, with Fuller winning the county by just one point in the runoff.
Comparative Performance: GA-14 Runoff
| Metric | Primary Result | Runoff Result | 2024 Presidential Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Margin | ~20% | <12% | +37% |
| Democratic Vote Share | 37% (Harris) | ~44% | ~31% |
| Total Turnout | 115,000 | ~130,000 | N/A |
What This Means for the Midterms
The combined results from Wisconsin and Georgia highlight a critical vulnerability for Republicans in suburban and “elastic” rural areas. In Wisconsin, the liberal majority on the Supreme Court is now 5-2, and they are structurally positioned to expand that lead. Conservative Justice Annette Ziegler recently announced she will not seek a third term next year, creating another open seat that could potentially move the court to a 6-1 liberal majority.
For Democrats, the GA-14 result proves that while deep-red districts may not be “flippable” in a single cycle, the gap is closing. The ability to overperform the presidential baseline by 25 points in a former Marjorie Taylor Greene stronghold suggests that the GOP’s grip on certain rural demographics may be loosening.
The next major checkpoint for this trend will be the Wisconsin open-seat race scheduled for next year, which will determine if Chris Taylor’s broad coalition was a one-time anomaly or a permanent realignment of the state’s judicial electorate.
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