The political landscape of Germany is facing a systemic shift as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubles down on a hardline platform to capitalize on widespread voter discontent. By signaling that Germany’s far-right AfD adopts ‘radical’ manifesto elements ahead of critical regional contests, the party is moving beyond simple Euro-skepticism toward a more aggressive, ethnic-nationalist vision of the state.
This strategic pivot comes as the party maintains significant momentum in the eastern states, where economic anxiety and frustration over migration have created a fertile environment for populist rhetoric. The party’s current trajectory suggests a calculated effort to dismantle the “brandmauer”—the political firewall—that mainstream parties have long maintained to exclude the AfD from governing coalitions.
The party’s renewed focus centers on a stark rejection of current migration policies and a demand for “remigration,” a term that has sparked national outcry and legal scrutiny. By framing these goals as essential for national survival, the AfD is positioning itself not merely as an opposition party, but as the sole alternative to a failing establishment in the eyes of its growing base.
The stakes extend beyond regional borders. As the AfD gains ground in the heart of Europe’s largest economy, its influence threatens to disrupt Germany’s leadership role within the European Union and its commitment to international climate and security alliances, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
A Shift Toward Hardline Nationalism
The AfD’s current ideological direction is characterized by a move away from the moderate, center-right rhetoric it occasionally employed in its early years. The party’s updated priorities now emphasize a strict interpretation of national identity, often linking citizenship to ethnic heritage rather than legal status.
Central to this radicalization is the concept of “remigration,” which involves the mass deportation of immigrants, including those who have acquired legal residency or citizenship. This policy was brought into the public spotlight following reports of a private meeting in Potsdam in January 2024, where party members and right-wing activists discussed the forced removal of millions of people of immigrant background.
Beyond migration, the manifesto elements include:
- EU Sovereignty: A push for a “Dexit” or a significant reduction in Germany’s contributions to the European Union to reclaim national autonomy.
- Climate Reversal: The total abandonment of the climate neutrality goals, specifically calling for a return to coal and nuclear power.
- Institutional Overhaul: Calls to restructure the judiciary and the media to remove what they describe as “left-wing bias.”
The Eastern Engine of Growth
The AfD’s surge is most pronounced in the former East Germany, where the party has transitioned from a fringe movement to a dominant political force. In states like Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, the party has tapped into a deep-seated sense of alienation among voters who feel left behind by the reunification process and the subsequent economic shifts.
Recent polling and election results underscore this dominance. In the state elections held in September 2024, the AfD emerged as a powerhouse, finishing first in Thuringia and narrowly second in Saxony. This success is not merely a protest vote but reflects a consolidated ideological shift among a segment of the electorate that views the AfD as the only party addressing their concerns regarding inflation, energy costs, and border security.
| State | Recent Political Status | Primary Driver of Support |
|---|---|---|
| Thuringia | Strongest support; top vote-getter | Anti-establishment sentiment |
| Saxony | High competitiveness; near-lead | Migration and border control |
| Saxony-Anhalt | Consistent high polling | Economic anxiety/Energy costs |
The party’s success in these regions is bolstered by a sophisticated digital strategy, utilizing platforms like TikTok to reach younger voters who are increasingly skeptical of traditional news outlets and the centrist policies of the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Greens, and FDP).
The ‘Firewall’ Under Pressure
For years, Germany’s mainstream parties—the CDU/CSU (Conservatives) and the SPD (Social Democrats)—have maintained a strict policy of refusing to enter any coalition with the AfD. However, the party’s growth is making this “firewall” increasingly challenging to maintain at the local level.
In several municipalities and small towns, the AfD’s sheer size means that without their cooperation, governing becomes nearly impossible. This creates a paradox for centrist politicians: they must choose between political paralysis or tacitly legitimizing a party that the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has classified as “proven right-wing extremist” in certain states.
The internal tension within the CDU is particularly acute. Even as the party leadership remains committed to isolating the AfD, some regional branches in the east have flirted with more populist rhetoric to prevent their own voters from defecting to the far right. This fragmentation suggests that the AfD is not only changing who is in power but how the other parties behave.
What So for German Democracy
The rise of the AfD represents a fundamental challenge to the post-war consensus of “defensive democracy” (streitbare Demokratie), a principle designed to prevent the democratic process from being used to abolish democracy itself. The party’s focus on “remigration” and its attacks on the judiciary are viewed by critics as precursors to a more authoritarian governance style.
The impact is felt most acutely by immigrant communities and minority groups, who face an environment of increased polarization and a perceived rise in hate speech. The normalization of radical rhetoric in the Bundestag and state parliaments has shifted the “Overton Window,” making ideas that were unthinkable a decade ago now part of the mainstream political discourse.
The next critical checkpoint for the AfD will be the 2025 federal election. As the party continues to refine its radical manifesto and expand its reach, the ability of Germany’s mainstream parties to offer a viable, empathetic alternative to the eastern electorate will determine whether the AfD remains a disruptive force or becomes a permanent pillar of German governance.
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