Paris — In a letter to the head of France’s leading business lobby, Medef, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has reaffirmed the government’s commitment to bringing the public deficit below 3% of GDP by 2029, a target he insists will not be derailed despite mounting economic pressures, including soaring fuel prices and a revised downward growth forecast for 2026.
Lecornu’s message, disclosed by AFP and confirmed by multiple outlets including Les Echos and Le Parisien, comes as the government faces growing scrutiny over its ability to reconcile fiscal discipline with the need to support businesses and households reeling from the fallout of the Middle East conflict and its impact on global energy markets. The letter, dated May 6, 2026, was sent in response to an April 10 missive from Medef president Patrick Martin, who had pressed for stricter budgetary rules and a “golden rule” enshrined in the Constitution to cap public deficits.
“I confirm that the government under my authority will not deviate from its course: returning to a public deficit below 3% of GDP by 2029,” Lecornu wrote, underlining that while the state will take its share of responsibility, he expects “the same mobilization from all economic actors.” His stance reflects a delicate balancing act: reducing the deficit without stifling the fragile growth that has characterized France’s economy in recent months, especially as inflation remains elevated and the outlook for 2026 has darkened.
Earlier this month, the government revised its growth forecast for 2026 downward to 0.9%, from a previous estimate of 1%, citing the spillover effects of the Middle East war on energy prices and global supply chains. Inflation, too, has been revised upward to 1.9%, according to projections from Bercy and the Banque de France. Yet, despite these headwinds, Lecornu remains steadfast on the 3% deficit target, a pledge that has become a cornerstone of his economic strategy.
Shared Responsibility and the Path to 3%
Lecornu’s letter underscores the government’s intention to pursue a two-pronged approach: tightening public finances while ensuring targeted support for the most affected sectors. He acknowledged that “the imperative of restoring public finances requires shared responsibility,” and called on businesses to play their part by optimizing existing aid mechanisms and, where possible, reducing their tax burden—particularly the production tax.
This stance comes as the government prepares to unveil new aid packages for industries hardest hit by the surge in fuel costs, including a “support device” for nearly 3 million “high-mileage drivers,” announced on April 21. The measures, estimated to cost the state 180 million euros in May alone, are part of a broader effort to shield vulnerable sectors—such as agriculture, fishing, and transportation—from the brunt of rising energy expenses.
Yet Lecornu made clear that while the state will continue to provide relief, he is unwilling to compromise on the deficit target. “The state will take its full share,” he wrote, “but I expect the same mobilization from all economic actors.” His message to the Medef was unambiguous: if businesses have proposals for spending cuts or reforms, the government is open to discussing them “without taboo.”
Dialogue Over Constitutional Rules
Where Lecornu drew the line was on the Medef’s call for a constitutional “golden rule” to lock in the deficit target. Such a measure, he argued, would have made managing the COVID-19 crisis nearly impossible without resorting to massive tax hikes. “These procedural changes fall under the Parliament’s purview,” he noted, adding that without a majority to push through such a reform, the idea has little chance of success.
Instead, Lecornu proposed deepening dialogue with both the Parliament and social partners in the lead-up to budgetary decisions. “If you wish to put forward proposals for savings or reforms, the government is ready to examine them without hesitation,” he stated, signaling a willingness to engage in a more collaborative approach to fiscal policy.
The Deficit Timeline and Economic Constraints
To meet the 3% target, the government must navigate a series of economic and political challenges. While the deficit was projected to remain at 5% of GDP in 2026, Lecornu’s letter suggests that the path to 3% by 2029 will require careful management of public spending, tax policy, and economic growth.
Here’s a snapshot of the fiscal landscape as it stands:
| Year | Growth Forecast | Inflation Forecast | Deficit Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9% (revised down from 1%) | 1.9% (revised up from 1.3%) | 5% of GDP |
| 2029 | Unspecified | Unspecified | <3% of GDP (target) |
As the government prepares to present its next round of aid measures—expected in early May—Lecornu’s letter serves as a reminder that while the state is willing to provide support, the burden of adjustment cannot rest solely on its shoulders. The coming months will be critical in determining whether France can square its fiscal ambitions with the realities of a slowing economy and a volatile global environment.
What’s Next: The Road Ahead
The next major checkpoint will be the government’s announcement of new support measures for sectors affected by fuel price hikes, scheduled for early May. This will be followed by the presentation of the 2027 budget, where the government will outline its strategy for reducing the deficit while maintaining economic stability.
For now, Lecornu’s message to the Medef is clear: the deficit target is non-negotiable, but achieving it will require cooperation across the board. As he put it, “the restoration of our public finances calls for shared responsibility.”
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