On paper, Michael King is exactly what the San Diego Padres need right now. In a rotation that has been ravaged by injuries and inconsistency, King has served as a stabilizing force, posting a 2.95 ERA over his first seven starts of the season. To the casual observer or the fan checking a box score, he is performing at an elite level.
But if you ask King whether he has actually been good this season, the answer is blunt: “Not at all.”
It isn’t a display of modesty or a plea for more praise. For King, It’s a clinical self-assessment. The pitcher who emerged as a dominant force in 2024 was surgical, characterized by pinpoint fastball command that set the stage for a devastating array of putaway pitches. The version of King taking the mound currently is something different—a pitcher who is surviving rather than dominating.
The disconnect lies in the mechanics of his most reliable weapon: the sinker. For much of the early season, King’s command of the pitch has been elusive. Instead of attacking hitters with his primary strength, he has found himself forced to pivot, relying on scouting reports and pitching to the specific weaknesses of opposing batters just to navigate through innings.
The mental toll of ‘survival pitching’
Pitching is often described as a mental game, but for King, the current struggle is physically and cognitively draining. When a pitcher cannot rely on their “bread and butter” pitch, every outing becomes a high-stakes puzzle that must be solved in real-time.
“I’m mentally exhausted after these games,” King said. “Because I need to go straight to the scouting report. I do my scouting to get through a tough inning or situation. But then it should come back to my strengths: I have the sinker command, I just attack guys.”
This shift from proactive to reactive pitching changes the nature of a start. Rather than dictating the pace of the game, King describes a feeling of “grinding.” While he has continued to put up zeros and keep the Padres in games, the effort required to do so is significantly higher. He is no longer operating from a place of dominance, but from a place of compensation.
This distinction is critical for the Padres’ long-term success. While the ERA remains low, the effort required to maintain it often leads to higher pitch counts and faster fatigue, which in turn places a heavier burden on the bullpen.
Decoding the gap between ERA and FIP
Baseball analysts often look beyond the Earned Run Average (ERA) to determine if a pitcher is sustainable. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) strips away the influence of defense and luck to focus on what the pitcher controls: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In King’s case, the peripheral numbers suggest a looming regression, hinting that he may have been beneficiaries of a bit of luck in his early outings.
However, there is an optimistic flip side to the data. If King’s current success is happening while his best pitch is “missing,” there is a significant ceiling yet to be reached. The goal for King and pitching coach Ruben Niebla is to bridge the gap between his current survival mode and his previous surgical precision.
The work is exhaustive and happens behind the scenes. King revealed that the collaboration with Niebla is constant, including late-night sessions. “Niebla called me at 11 p.m. On Monday night with an idea and passed along some video for him to sift through,” King noted.
The strategy is a delicate balance: the days between starts are for tinkering with mechanics and analyzing video, but once the game begins, King must shut off the analytical brain. The objective is to compete on instinct, not on a checklist of mechanical adjustments.
| Feature | “Surgical” King (Peak) | “Grinding” King (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Approach | Attacking strengths/Fastball command | Pitching to hitter weaknesses |
| Sinker Usage | Pinpoint command/Primary weapon | Inconsistent/Missing command |
| Mental State | Confident/Dictating pace | Mentally exhausted/Reactive |
| Bullpen Impact | Deep outings/Low stress | High pitch counts/Higher stress |
The pursuit of the ‘Ace’ standard
For King, the definition of success isn’t just about the ERA—it’s about the role he plays within the team ecosystem. Having spent years in the New York Yankees’ bullpen before his trade to San Diego and subsequent conversion to a full-time starter, King has a clear blueprint of what an “ace” looks like.
He recalls the luxury of warming up while Gerrit Cole was on the mound for the Yankees. “I remember it as a reliever with Gerrit Cole pitching,” King said. “It was like: ‘When Gerrit’s pitching, I’m checking out for the first five innings. Then I do my warmup in the sixth. Now I’m ready to go in the seventh.’”
King’s current frustration stems from the fact that he cannot yet provide that same peace of mind to the Padres’ bullpen. He expressed a desire to be the starter who allows the manager to forget about the bullpen until the seventh inning. Currently, however, he often finds himself at 100 pitches through five innings, leaving the relief corps to cover four frames instead of two.
Despite these frustrations, Ruben Niebla maintains that King possesses a “high floor.” According to Niebla, King’s combination of competitiveness, deception, and natural movement allows him to succeed even when his command falters. This inherent talent is why the Padres committed to him during the offseason; they believe that even a struggling Michael King is a formidable opponent.
The process of becoming a true ace is rarely linear. As Niebla reminds him, the journey involves stacking good starts with the occasional great one until the consistency becomes permanent.
The next test for King arrives this Thursday, as he takes the mound for the series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park. The focus will remain on whether the late-night video sessions and mechanical tweaks can return the sinker to his arsenal, moving him one step closer to the “ace” status he demands of himself.
Join the conversation in the comments below: Do you think King’s current ERA is a fluke, or is he simply navigating a typical mid-season adjustment? Share this story with fellow Padres fans.
