Global oil prices fluctuated in July 2026 as a prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran clashed with strong supply levels.
The energy market is currently locked in a tug-of-war between geopolitical chaos and fundamental supply abundance. While the U.S. launched a series of air strikes against Iranian military targets over 11 nights, the expected price explosion has been muted. Investors are increasingly hesitant to bet on a massive price surge, treating the conflict as a known variable rather than a fresh shock.
Market Volatility and the “Risk Premium” Gap
Recent price action reveals a stark contrast between short-term spikes and long-term trends. According to suara.com, Brent crude surged 3,7 persen to $94.40 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 4% to $87.71 following the U.S. military campaign. However, this volatility was short-lived.
This cooling suggests that the “risk premium”—the extra cost investors pay to hedge against war—is significantly lower than it was between March and May 2026.
The disconnect between the intensity of the warfare and the price of the commodity is striking. While military strikes continue, market participants appear to be experiencing a form of news fatigue, where new escalations no longer trigger the same panic they once did.
The Three Pillars Preventing a Price Spike
When war broke out in late February 2026, analysts predicted crude could hit between US$150 and US$200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz—which carries 20% of global supply—were blocked. As beritasatu.com noted, prices remained controlled.
- Record U.S. Production: The United States reached a production record of approximately 13,93 juta barel per hari in April 2026. To further stabilize the market, the U.S. coordinated with the International Energy Agency (IEA) in March to release roughly 400 juta barel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
- China’s Demand Collapse: The world’s largest oil importer saw its crude imports drop to the lowest level in nearly a decade by June 2026. This was driven by a reduction in fuel exports, a shift toward electric taxis over private cars, and a slowdown in the petrochemical industry.
- Alternative Routing: Saudi Arabia mitigated the risk of a Hormuz blockade by increasing shipments through the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
This combination of high supply and low demand has created a ceiling for prices. Brent only touched US$126 per barrel during the peak of the crisis, far below the all-time record of US$147 set in 2008.
Investor Psychology and Diplomatic Signals
The lack of aggressive speculation is perhaps the most telling signal for the market. Data from the ICE exchange shows that while speculative positions supporting Brent prices rose during the week ending July 14, the total value was only US$ 14,8 miliar—more than 50% lower than the peak seen in late March.
“Semua orang optimistis terhadap kenaikan harga minyak saat ini, tetapi tidak ada yang benar-benar mengambil posisi besar,”
Ilia Bouchouev, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
This hesitation is reinforced by contradictory signals from leadership. While Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon to launch attacks against Iran in a scale not seen before should he face personal threats, he has also expressed a willingness to resume talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to viva.co.id, Qatari mediators have already been in Tehran to facilitate a return to the negotiating table.
The Fragility of Current Stability
Despite the current stability, the market remains vulnerable to a sudden shift. The primary risk is no longer just the air strikes, but the maritime threats. Houthi militia threats to disable Saudi export routes could potentially sever the very lifelines that are currently keeping the global economy from a deeper energy crisis.
“Saat ini pasokan minyak mentah untuk pengiriman cepat masih sangat banyak. Namun kondisi itu belum tentu bertahan lama,”
Adi Imsirovic, senior oil trader
The central question moving forward is whether the abundance of physical supply can continue to offset the unpredictability of the war. If diplomatic efforts via Qatar fail and the Houthi threats materialize into a full-scale blockade of Saudi exports, the “investor calm” seen in July may evaporate, potentially pushing prices toward the US$150 mark that analysts feared in February.
Related reading
