The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb have effectively shut down to normal tanker traffic, with Iran’s IRGC and Houthi blockades driving operational shifts in regional oil trade, according to two verified reports.
Meanwhile, Reuters noted a rise in Bab el-Mandeb traffic to 28 vessels on July 28, though still below July 14’s peak of 46. These contrasting snapshots reveal a fractured maritime landscape shaped by kinetic threats, insurance withdrawals, and evasive tactics.
Operational Status of Key Maritime Corridors
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial tanker traffic,
with all transits on July 27 confined to the northern corridor, per Hellenicshippingnews. EO imagery confirmed 6 IRGC high-speed craft patrolling the southern strait, alongside dark vessels and AIS-matched cargo. The southern corridor saw no tanker crossings, while the northern route hosted 3 inbound and 3 outbound vessels, including a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier and a Gambia-flagged cargo ship. This pattern underscores IRGC enforcement as the primary barrier to open passage.
Bab el-Mandeb’s decline mirrors the Houthi blockade’s escalation. Since the July 20 declaration, crossings fell 22%, with Saudi-linked transits dropping 46%. A Lloyd’s market insurance withdrawal from Saudi-linked vessels on July 24 exacerbated the drop, according to Hellenicshippingnews. However, Reuters reported 28 vessels transiting the strait on July 28, including four oil tankers, suggesting partial recovery amid shifting risks. The disparity highlights divergent regional impacts: Iranian crude continues moving, while Saudi-linked traffic faces acute constraints.
Blockade Dynamics and Evading Vessels
Windward’s assessment identifies 102 potential blockade-breaker vessels, with five classified as “Tier 1” due to proximity to the blockade line and laden intent. A Norway-flagged OFAC Iran-sanctioned tanker, flagged as heading to Djibouti, was reclassified after Vortexa confirmed its true destination as Port Klang, Malaysia, 62 nautical miles from the line. Another Iran-flagged VLCC, carrying 2.01 million barrels of crude, remains 62 nautical miles from the blockade, illustrating the high-stakes calculus of evasion.
Houthi tactics include both kinetic and economic pressure. The insurance withdrawal from Saudi-linked vessels created a “primary driver” of reduced traffic, while IRGC patrols in Hormuz enforced physical closure. Chinese vessels, however, appear to have secured exemptions: three China-linked VLCCs transited Bab el-Mandeb loaded from Yanbu, suggesting Chinese oil cargoes have secured an exemption from the Houthi blockade. These strategies reflect broader efforts to reshape trade routes under duress.
Impact on Oil Trade and Regional Stability
This reflects market adjustments to restricted corridors, with traders seeking alternative routes. However, the closures risk deeper disruptions: Hormuz’s near-total shutdown could force longer, costlier detours through the Gulf of Oman, while Bab el-Mandeb’s volatility threatens Saudi oil exports.
Regional stability hangs in balance. The IRGC’s presence in Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb create a “Critical” operational risk environment, per Windward. U.S.-Iran tensions, meanwhile, remain unresolved: Reuters cited U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about ongoing negotiations, though both sides warned of potential military escalation. The closures thus amplify geopolitical stakes, with oil markets and shipping firms navigating a fragmented, high-risk landscape.
The coming weeks will test the resilience of these blockades. If the Houthi blockade persists, Saudi and international responses—ranging from diplomatic pressure to military posturing—could alter the dynamics. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain, with both sides signaling openness to talks but no clear path to de-escalation. For oil traders, the dual closures underscore a new era of maritime fragility, where geopolitical clashes directly dictate the flow of global energy.
