Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham has seen a modest polling increase following the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer, though he inherits the weakest electoral standing of any mid-term Prime Minister in 30 years. Current data shows Labour at 21 per cent, narrowing the gap with Reform UK as the party seeks to reclaim working-class pro-Brexit voters.
The transition of power to Andy Burnham has triggered a modest recovery for Labour, often termed the “Burnham bounce”. While the shift is not massive, it represents a critical attempt to stabilize a party that had reached a dire low just before the leadership change.
The Numerical Reality of the Burnham Bounce
Immediately preceding Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, Labour was running at just 19 per cent in the polls. This position was equal to the Conservatives and left Labour eight points behind Reform UK. The announcement of the incumbent’s departure triggered an average three-point uplift in support.
That initial surge has been volatile. Some polling suggests the bounce has almost entirely disappeared, yet the average of companies polling since the start of the month places Labour at 21 per cent. This indicates a slight improvement over the pre-resignation floor, driven partly by the return of some 2024 voters who had previously abandoned the party.
A Record-Low Inheritance at Number 10
Despite the slight uptick, the electoral inheritance Burnham has received is the weakest of any Prime Minister to take office in the middle of a parliament over the last three decades.
| Prime Minister | Party Poll Rating at Entry | Date of Entry |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 19 per cent (Pre-bounce) | Recent |
| Rishi Sunak | 23 per cent | October 2022 |
| Boris Johnson | 25 per cent | July 2019 |
The only mid-term Prime Minister in 30 years who failed to provide any immediate polling boost to their party was Liz Truss in September 2022, according to analysis by Sir John Curtice. Typically, such a boost is of the order of 3-4 points.
Shift in Momentum Between Labour and Reform
The political landscape is shifting as Reform UK’s dominance wavers. Reform support has slipped following Nigel Farage’s decision to precipitate the Clacton by-election, leaving Labour just three points adrift of the party that led the polls for over a year.
This trend suggests a dual movement: Labour is losing fewer of its 2024 voters to Reform, while the Conservatives are also seeing a reduction in the rate at which they lose support to Farage’s party. Interestingly, Kemi Badenoch’s party has edged up to 20 per cent in the polls for the first time since last spring.
The Working-Class Voter Challenge
For Burnham, the “bounce” is a superficial victory if it does not translate into a structural shift. The new leader still faces the formidable task of winning back working-class pro-Brexit voters—a demographic that once formed Labour’s core but now constitutes the heart of support for Reform.
His personal standing remains a hurdle; his ratings are still slightly in negative territory, and roughly one in five voters have not yet formed an opinion on him. This uncertainty may cap the potential for any further immediate polling gains.
Path to 2029: Delivery over Rhetoric
Labour MPs are currently hoping Burnham can emulate the success of Boris Johnson, who managed to win a general election six months after taking over from Theresa May to get Brexit done
. In contrast, Rishi Sunak was unable to reverse the downward trajectory of the Conservatives.
Ultimately, the trajectory toward the 2029 election depends on policy execution. The challenges facing the current government are as formidable as those that beset Sir Keir Starmer. Whether voters believe that Burnham’s promises are actually happening will determine if this modest bounce evolves into a sustainable recovery or a temporary spike.
About the Analyst: Sir John Curtice is a Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and a Senior Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) and The UK in a Changing Europe. He serves as the Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks: EU and What Scotland Thinks websites. A regular contributor to the annual British Social Attitudes report since 1986 and an editor since 1994, he has also been a Co-Director of the Scottish Social Attitudes survey since 1999. Sir John received a knighthood in the New Year’s Honours list in 2018.
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