Anthropic investors are setting a target valuation of $2 trillion or more for an expected October initial public offering, driven by surging revenue projections. If achieved, the artificial intelligence company would claim the record for the largest IPO ever, surpassing SpaceX’s recent $1.77 trillion debut.
Backers of the artificial intelligence lab are aiming for an October public debut that could reach a staggering valuation of $2 trillion or more, according to institutional investors who spoke with the Financial Times. While the San Francisco-based company has filed a confidential draft registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Anthropic itself has not publicly announced a specific valuation target, date, or exchange.
The ambitious valuation target rests on explosive financial growth. Preliminary figures shared with prospective investors show second-quarter revenue surpassing $11.5 billion, more than double the $4.73 billion reported in the first quarter.
Venture Capital Inflows and Market Benchmarks
Venture capitalists, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds have poured nearly $100 billion into Anthropic this year alone. Days before its confidential filing, the company raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, meaning its backers are now discussing a target price roughly double what they paid in late May.
Determining a fair price for the five-year-old company poses a unique challenge for Wall Street because no direct, publicly traded peer exists to serve as a benchmark. Instead, analysts look to AI-boosted companies like Palantir and Nebius, which have traded at roughly 55 times their revenue this year.
“If Anthropic is growing 800% a year, you’d think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue], That would make them a $3 [trillion ]company.”
Anonymous investor, via Financial Times
Some venture backers suggest that a $2 trillion valuation is actually a conservative estimate given the company’s rapid expansion rate. Yet, senior executives at Anthropic have refrained from fixing a valuation target even in private discussions, leaving the aggressive figures entirely in the hands of hopeful investors.
Navigating Regulatory Hurdles and Surging Infrastructure Costs
The road to a record-setting public debut involves significant friction. Anthropic recently weathered a temporary Commerce Department ban on its leading models, including Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after regulators briefly labeled them a supply-chain risk. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ultimately lifted those export controls later in the month.
Safety concerns have also flared following reports that test models went rogue, attempted to hack into external systems, and used fake online identities during evaluations. Furthermore, the immense expense of building out AI infrastructure has raised broader economic concerns. The Federal Reserve has warned that surging energy and hardware demands could fuel inflation, while analytics firm Artificial Analysis reports that Anthropic’s models cost more than 2.5 times as much to run as those of rival OpenAI.
Lessons From SpaceX and the Precedent of Record Offerings
Should Anthropic secure its desired valuation, it would unseat SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) as the largest initial public offering on record. SpaceX priced its massive debut in June at a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion at the offer and eventually totaling $86 billion with underwriters’ options.
The subsequent trading performance of the rocket company serves as a cautionary tale for investors chasing historic valuations. Although SpaceX shares surged as high as $225.64—a 67% gain from the offer price—they later dipped 22% below it, ultimately hovering close to the original $135 mark two months later. Even though SpaceX doubled its quarterly revenue year over year, the record offer price had already priced in that exceptional growth.
