The far-right Alternative for Germany party has extended its polling lead to 20 percentage points in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 elections. An INSA poll shows the AfD reaching up to 42 or 43 percent, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats plunge to 22 percent in the eastern state.
Saxony-Anhalt stands at the center of the political map as voters prepare to head to the polls. The state, which emerged after the dissolution of East Germany in 1990, has a population of roughly 2.1 million people, with a portion living in the capital of Magdeburg and others in Halle. Since 2002, the regional government has been led by premiers from the conservative Christian Democratic Union, the party currently chaired at the federal level by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Now, that long-standing conservative grip faces a challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany, according to coverage from Czech News Agency.
Polling Surges and the Threat to Traditional Parties
An INSA poll released on Monday places the AfD at 42 to 43 percent support, outpacing incumbent Premier Sven Schulze and his conservative colleagues by 20 to 21 percentage points. The surge represents a severe blow to the traditional ruling parties and marks a dramatic reversal from the previous election in 2021, when the CDU secured 37.1 percent of the vote compared to 20.8 percent for the AfD.
Federal leaders have attempted to stem the tide. Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the region to mobilize voters and warn against political upheaval. He declared that Saxony-Anhalt must not become an experimental field for angry citizens, warning of the risk of economic decline. The current regional premier, Sven Schulze, has seen his standing drop significantly; earlier polling for public broadcaster ZDF showed Schulze leading with 48 percent against AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund at 32 percent, but the INSA poll recorded Schulze at just 28 percent support while the 35-year-old Siegmund reached 39 to 42 percent.
If these projections hold, the AfD stands a serious chance of securing an outright majority in the state parliament in Magdeburg. This would mark the first time a member of the AfD has headed a state government, breaking the long-standing “firewall” policy where all other mainstream parties refuse to work with it. The state branch of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has already been classified as a confirmed case of right-wing extremism by domestic intelligence since 2023. AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund has insisted that Saxony-Anhalt needs a stable government.
Minor Parties and Parliamentary Thresholds
The outcome of the election heavily depends on whether several minor parties cross the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats in the state parliament. According to the projections, the post-communist party Die Linke (The Left) would win 12 percent of the vote, the Social Democrats (SPD) would secure six to seven percent, and the Greens would reach five percent. Meanwhile, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are locked in a battle around the threshold, with the BSW polling between four and five percent and the FDP at three to four percent.
The BSW, which splintered off from The Left in early 2024, has vocally campaigned against another CDU-led government and emerged as a potential kingmaker. BSW lead candidate Thomas Schulze stated, Only if the BSW makes into the state parliament can the next term of office of the CDU premier be prevented. The AfD will not make it alone. However, the BSW has not committed to supporting an AfD-led government. Instead, Thomas Schulze has called for a model of shifting majorities and a cross-party premier
to reduce polarization.
If the BSW fails to clear the hurdle alongside the FDP, alternative coalition arithmetic comes into play. If the Greens, Die Linke, SPD, and CDU all enter parliament, they could theoretically form a vládní protikoalici (governing counter-coalition) reaching 46 percent. However, such a coalition faces a major internal hurdle because the CDU is bound by a party congress resolution that strictly excludes any coalition with Die Linke.
Campaign Trail and Local Realities
Amid high political stakes, campaigning has taken place across towns in the region, such as Wernigerode, a municipality on the edge of the Harz mountains. At the historic town square, national politicians have campaigned alongside local hopefuls. Philipp Amthor, a Bundestag member for the CDU since 2017 who serves as a state secretary and minister for digitalization and modernization of the state, traveled to support 28-year-old local CDU candidate Bianca Heineová.
The campaign stop took place at the Café am Markt, part of the Wiecker bakery and confectionery business which celebrated its 390th anniversary of craft family tradition and 45 years of the café in mid-August. Owner Michael Wiecker, a master confectioner, trainer, and vice president of the German Confectionery Association, provided his venue for a two-hour Christian Democratic happening where Amthor and Heineová wore bakery aprons behind the ice cream counter to hand out free scoops of ice cream and speak with residents.
