Brent crude hit a seven-week high of $99 per barrel on Tuesday as a lethal stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz entered its sixth month.
More than six months after a joint military campaign by the United States and Israel launched against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in a violent standoff. What began as a sweeping disruption to global energy supplies has calcified into a daily war of attrition, with neither side able to fully control the vital maritime chokepoint.
Today, traffic is a fraction of its pre-war volume.
Escalating Attacks and the Deadliest Month for Seamen
Despite protection efforts from the U.S. military—which routinely intercepts Iranian drones and missiles and escorts commercial vessels—shipping companies find the route increasingly untenable. According to a New York Times analysis of public attack records, Iran struck 12 ships in August, up slightly from 11 in July, demonstrating a resilient attack tempo.
The human toll on merchant mariners has mounted sharply. Last week, a Saudi oil tanker named Sidr
, operated by the state shipping company Bahri and carrying roughly 2 million barrels of oil, was struck off the coast of Oman in the dead of night, killing two Filipino crew members. That incident crowned August as the deadliest month for merchant seamen in the strait since March, bringing the broader conflict’s toll to at least 20 seafarers and one port worker killed, 35 injured, and one person missing.
The conflict has also drawn in neighboring Gulf states.
“The strait is neither fully closed nor fully opened. Iran can’t close it completely, and the U.S. can’t open it completely.”
Eugene Gholz, associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame
Retaliatory Strikes, New Missiles, and Proposed Exclusion Zones
Military friction in the Gulf has intensified on multiple fronts. Over the weekend, the U.S. military’s Central Command reported that Iran launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships, though neither was hit. In retaliation, the United States struck three Iranian oil tankers, disabling them.
Tehran responded with severe threats. Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that the Islamic Republic possesses new missiles
capable of targeting U.S. warships and bases across the region. Rezaei announced plans for Iran to establish a maritime exclusion zone
outside the Strait of Hormuz to stop unpermitted vessels from transiting.
These developments unfold against a backdrop of intense naval cleanup efforts. On August 25, U.S. officials confirmed President Trump’s claim that the Navy had cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme. Underwater drones identified more than 100 suspected mines over recent months, which private contractors subsequently neutralized. President Trump has vowed that the U.S. will continue destroying any Iranian vessels caught laying additional mines.
Soaring Energy Prices and a Structural Shift in Global Trade
The constriction of Persian Gulf oil has rippled aggressively through global markets. TankerTrackers.com reported that daily oil transit through the strait averaged 6.7 million barrels in the seven days leading up to Thursday—nearly 60% lower than pre-war levels. International benchmark Brent crude traded at a seven-week high of $99 per barrel Tuesday morning, remaining more than 30% higher than before the conflict began.
To mitigate the blockage, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are routing crude through alternative overland pipelines, while state-owned tankers occasionally slip through the strait at night with their transponders switched off.
Diplomatic efforts remain strained. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani traveled to Beijing to meet China’s Foreign Minister, coordinating with Beijing—which accounts for 45% of Iranian oil sales—to explore restarting negotiations.
Meanwhile, the broader economic fallout prompted a statement from a group of maritime nations. The group characterized the Middle East conflict as a signal of a structural shift
as rules of international trade break down.
