The United Nations climate agency has warned that the developing El Niño phenomenon could become the strongest since records began four decades ago, placing the world in what the UN chief described as a danger zone of extreme weather
. The World Meteorological Organization announced that the naturally occurring weather pattern is near certain to persist through February, reaching a very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of the year.
UN Warns Developing El Niño Could Be Strongest in Four Decades
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva that if the current trajectory continues, the event may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began — so, literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades
. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and it is not caused by climate change (Anadolu Agency). Typically occurring every two to seven years, the cycle alters winds, pressure systems, and rainfall worldwide.
Exceptional Ocean Temperatures Drive High Confidence Forecasts
Confidence in the meteorological outlook is high, backed by mutually reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals and close agreement among seasonal prediction systems. The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5 °C above normal from May to July and reached 2.0 °C above normal in July. Weekly values climbed further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately 2.2 °C to 2.6 °C above average.
Subsurface ocean conditions are even more exceptional. In some areas, subsurface temperatures were more than 8 °C above average during July and early August. Driven by these warm ocean conditions, the WMO reported an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent
that El Niño conditions will persist into early 2027. Because heat in the oceans releases slowly into the atmosphere, the WMO noted that knock-on climate impacts and global temperature increases will continue well into 2027.
Global Agricultural Drought Risks and Vulnerable Regions
A new analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (NewsNation) warns of a high probability of agricultural drought across major regions during key growing periods. More than 80% of projected drought impacts hit agriculture in low- and middle-income countries (NewsNation). Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, FAO’s natural resources officer, cautioned that the planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity
(NewsNation).
High-risk zones identified by the FAO include:
- The Sahel region in Africa and Southern Africa, including large parts of Namibia, Botswana, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique, and Madagascar.
- Central America’s dry corridor, spanning Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.
- South American nations and the Caribbean, including Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
- Parts of South and Southeast Asia, running from Pakistan and India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia.
Meanwhile, in El Salvador, the General Directorate of Civil Protection declared a national red alert for meteorological and agricultural drought after recording a 41% rainfall deficit in May and intense heat reaching up to 43.9 °C in Santa Rosa de Lima.
International Preparedness and Funding Appeals
While the WMO notes that regional impacts vary and can be modified by other climate drivers—such as a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and warm equatorial Atlantic conditions (Anadolu Agency)—the overarching UN message stresses early prevention.
