President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran against activities at Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear site near Natanz, amid escalating tensions and satellite evidence of construction. The U.S. has not yet struck the facility, despite Trump’s threats and intelligence suggesting Iran may be relocating centrifuges there.
Satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows a surge in construction at the site, with activity shifting from excavation to internal construction.
Trump’s Threats and the Nuclear Site
Trump’s warnings against Pickaxe Mountain, known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, have intensified in recent weeks. We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe,
he said, adding, I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard.
The site, located 2 kilometers from the damaged Natanz facility, is buried 100 meters underground, designed to withstand U.S. bunker-busting bombs. CNN reports signs of U.S. work on weapons to overcome the granite shield, though no strike has occurred despite threats.
The White House has not confirmed whether Iran has moved centrifuges to Pickaxe Mountain, but the Wall Street Journal reported Israeli intelligence suggested thousands were relocated there in late 2025. Trump acknowledged the possibility but emphasized, We follow the material,
referring to uranium stockpiles. Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, has stated it is not undertaking work at Natanz, though U.S. strikes in 2025 damaged its centrifuge facilities.
Satellite Evidence of Construction
CSIS analysis of satellite imagery reveals a clear surge in construction activity
at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026, with a shift from active excavation toward probable internal construction.
The think tank noted the site’s flurry of activity, just 2 kilometers from Natanz, which was heavily bombed in June 2025. The IAEA’s director-general, Rafael Grossi, confirmed indications of movement
around the site, though he noted Iran’s statement made after the sabotage at an Iranian centrifuge assembly facility in 2020: We are going to put everything in tunnels, inside a mountain.
Maxar satellite images show tunnel construction activities and a large spoil pile near the Natanz complex, suggesting ongoing work. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported that Pickaxe remains under construction but is not yet operational. However, analysts speculate the site could serve as a fallback for Iran’s nuclear program, given the destruction of other facilities. The U.S. and Israel did not even attempt to target the facility in June 2025, or again after attacking Iran this year,
said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association, adding, Given the intensity of the U.S. and Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran’s nuclear program, I think that suggests that the U.S. does not view Pickaxe as an imminent threat.
Iran’s Response and Denials
Iran has consistently denied allegations of nuclear weapon development, stating it is developing a nuclear power programme only, and does not have plans to build a nuclear weapon. A spokesperson for Iran’s embassy in London was not immediately available to respond to a CNBC request for comment, while Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters warned that bombing the nearby mountain would amount to a renewal of war across the region. The country has also accused the U.S. of escalating hostilities, including an Iranian oil tanker off Kharg Island being struck by four US missiles, according to Iranian news outlet Khabar Fouri. Kharg Island handles about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports.
Trump claimed the war would end immediately after the election
as they can’t hold out any longer,
though the conflict remains unresolved. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on U.S. bases and strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. The U.S. has not confirmed whether it has targeted Pickaxe, despite Trump’s repeated assertions.
Oil Market Reactions
The Strait of Hormuz has seen increased military activity, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes on tankers and naval vessels.
Oil flows have surprised to the upside in recent weeks, but strategists at ING have warned the market could tighten more sharply if ongoing escalation translates into disrupted oil flows. Crucial to the outlook — and to how much momentum this latest move can sustain — is Chinese buying behaviour,
Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note published Thursday, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. has not confirmed whether it has targeted Pickaxe Mountain, leaving the site’s role in the broader conflict uncertain.
Unanswered Questions
Key questions remain about the U.S. strategy toward Pickaxe Mountain. Why has the site been spared in past strikes, despite its strategic significance? Is Iran truly relocating centrifuges there, or is the activity aimed at protecting existing equipment? And will Trump’s threats translate into action before the midterm elections? The IAEA’s inability to inspect Iran’s facilities since the U.S. attacked the country earlier this year adds to the uncertainty, leaving critical details about Iran’s nuclear capabilities unverified.
As tensions persist, the world watches to see whether Trump’s warnings will lead to a strike—or remain empty threats.
