The findings, based on computer modeling and historical records, challenge long-held assumptions about the scale of colonial impact.
The research, led by Flinders University’s Professor Corey Bradshaw and University of Technology Sydney’s Larissa Behrendt, estimates Australia’s pre-colonial Indigenous population at 2.22 million—far exceeding earlier figures of 250,000 to 1 million.
Pre-Colonial Population and Demographic Catastrophe
Behrendt described the findings as a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story,
emphasizing that colonial violence and disease were not marginal consequences but central to the population collapse.
The study’s methodology combined ethnographic observations, archaeological data, and genetic reconstructions to refine population estimates. Researchers acknowledged previous biases in historical records, with Bradshaw citing the 1971 census as the first official count of Aboriginal people and the 1970s Wildlife Act that classified Indigenous Australians as “fauna.” It hasn't been that long that we've woken up to the fact these travesties occurred,
he added.
Despite the devastation, the research also highlighted resilience. These Indigenous cultures survived and these people, despite all that horrendous treatment and dispossession and death, managed to perpetuate their languages, their culture, their managing of country and that is worth celebrating,
Bradshaw noted.
Stolen Generations’ Lasting Impact
While the ABC study focused on large-scale demographic shifts, the SBS report detailed the intergenerational trauma of the Stolen Generations. Survivors are 2.7 times as likely as other First Nations people of the same age to have a severe or profound disability and 1.5 times as likely to report going without money for basic living expenses, according to a 2025 AIHW analysis commissioned by the Healing Foundation.
Leonie Williamson, Acting CEO of the Healing Foundation and a Gubbi Gubbi, Gamilaroi and Butchulla woman also descended from North West Queensland, emphasized the deep, long and lifelong effect
of forced removals. Survivors aged 50 and over face six times the risk of kidney disease and 4.8 times the likelihood of severe or profound disabilities compared to non-Indigenous Australians. Their descendants also experience heightened psychological distress and financial hardship, with 4.5 times the risk of kidney disease and 1.3 times as likely to report high psychological distress.
The report found that nearly half of Australia’s Indigenous population—around 200,000 people—were descendants of Stolen Generations survivors. What we see there are continuing experiences of psychological distress and areas like financial hardship continue through the generations,
Williamson said, calling for culturally appropriate aged care and mental health services.
Research Methods and Historical Context
The ABC study’s computer modeling challenged assumptions about pre-colonial population sizes, which had relied on 1930s anthropological data. Researchers argued that historical biases and racism led to underestimations of colonial violence, with Bradshaw stating that recorded massacres represented only the tip of the iceberg.
He estimated the actual number of frontier killings could be out by an order of magnitude of what was actually happening.
The Healing Foundation’s 2025 report, Are You Waiting for Us to Die? The unfinished business of Bringing them home, called for a National Healing Package, including culturally safe and trauma-informed aged care and health services, equitable redress, prioritised access to records and greater investment in Stolen Generations organisations.
Future Implications and Calls for Action
Both studies highlight urgent calls for reconciliation and policy reform. The ABC research urges recognition of the “invaluable” role of Indigenous cultural survival, while the SBS report emphasizes the need for targeted support for Stolen Generations survivors and their descendants. With latest census data showing in 2021, Australia’s First Nations population was at about 37 per cent of the estimated median pre-colonial size, the path to true equity remains long, but the findings provide a critical framework for addressing historical and ongoing inequities.
As Bradshaw noted, Aboriginal people were considered fauna under our Wildlife Act as late as the 1970s, the first official census of Aboriginal people in Aboriginal in 1971, so it hasn’t been that long that we’ve woken up to the fact these travesties occurred.
The coming years will test whether Australia’s institutions can translate these revelations into meaningful action, ensuring that the lessons of the past inform a more just future.