NATO is accelerating preparations for a potential conflict with Russia as military spending grows, command structures strengthen, and European members assume greater responsibility for defense, though intelligence finds no imminent attack plan against the Baltic states.
European governments are scaling up military preparations along NATO’s eastern flank amid a tense security climate marked by territorial airspace incidents, infrastructure sabotage threats, and a significant Russian military buildup. While the alliance reinforces its eastern border and conducts realistic combat exercises, leadership stresses that these precautionary measures do not signal an immediate invasion.
NATO Transformation and High-Level European Diplomacy
During Germany’s annual Heads of Mission Conference in Berlin on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told attendees that Europe is undergoing the Alliance’s most profound transformation since the Cold War, with European members and Canada expected to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This diplomatic push builds upon a series of high-level consultations held throughout the year between NATO leadership and European leaders from nations most exposed to Russia.
On Tuesday (8 September 2026), NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte took part in a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, chaired by Germany and the United Kingdom. Rutte’s September 10 Berlin visit followed his July meetings with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. In July, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met in Berlin with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. Their discussions focused on preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara, European security, defense policy and continued support for Ukraine, coming as Germany and the Baltic states were coordinating positions ahead of the July NATO summit.
Germany’s Expanding Military Footprint in the Baltics
Germany has emerged as one of the principal military contributors to NATO’s Baltic defense strategy. A German brigade is being permanently established in Lithuania, while the German-Netherlands Corps has assumed a NATO command role for forces in Estonia and Latvia. Germany’s Bundeswehr says the brigade is being established at Rūdninkai and Rukla, with additional temporary locations around Vilnius and Kaunas, and describes the permanent deployment as one of the most ambitious projects in the Bundeswehr’s history.
Simultaneously, the German-Netherlands Corps has assumed a NATO command role to oversee allied forces stationed in Estonia and Latvia. These deployments reflect a broader regional reorganization designed to ensure rapid reinforcement capabilities across the Baltic states.
Border Incursions and Airspace Violations Stoke Regional Fear
The defensive build-up follows a turbulent sequence of airspace violations involving military drones straying into the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, stoking concerns that the war in Ukraine is spilling over into NATO’s northern borders with Russia. As Ukraine attacks Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports, some of its drones have missed their targets and led to security warnings in neighbouring countries. On May 7, Latvia and Lithuania urged NATO to strengthen air defences after two suspected stray drones crossed from Russia and crash in Latvia, with one exploding at an oil storage facility in the Latvian region of Rezekne, damaging four empty oil tanks.
On May 10, Andris Spruds resigned as Latvia’s defence minister after Prime Minister Evika Silina said anti-drone systems were not deployed fast enough. Ukraine said the drones were Ukrainian but had been diverted by Russian electronic warfare. On May 14, Silina resigned as prime minister, triggering the collapse of Latvia’s coalition government. NATO fighter jets from various allied nations—including French and Romanian NATO jets—have repeatedly scrambled to intercept and shoot down uninvited aerial objects across the Baltic and Finnish airspace, with NATO fighter jets downing drones in Latvian airspace on June 8 and August 14.
Intensive Winter and Combat Exercises Near the Russian Border
To test combat readiness under harsh conditions, NATO forces have maintained an aggressive exercise schedule across the eastern flank, with the most visible evidence of NATO’s preparations found in the scale and geography of its military exercises. In Estonia, NATO troops conducted winter exercises in freezing conditions as part of the alliance’s broad readiness strategy.
NATO has responded by reinforcing its eastern flank and exercising for scenarios ranging from conventional warfare to cyberattacks, drones and attacks on critical infrastructure. On June 17, Rutte met Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where talks covered NATO deterrence and defense, preparations for the Ankara summit, Latvia’s contribution to the eastern flank, and a drone incident involving Latvian airspace. Rutte also met Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė in Brussels in February to discuss collective security and support for Ukraine, while at the July NATO summit in Ankara, Rutte and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan formally welcomed the leaders of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Germany among other Allied leaders.