Republican Michael Whatley faces former Gov. Roy Cooper in a tightly contested North Carolina Senate race, with Trump’s endorsement amplifying tensions over crime, economy, and party strategy. A High Point University poll shows Cooper leading by 5 points, but analysts caution the race remains fluid.
Republican Michael Whatley, the former RNC chairman and Trump ally, is locked in a razor-close battle with former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper for North Carolina’s open Senate seat, a contest that could determine control of the chamber. A High Point University poll released Friday showed Cooper leading Whatley 50-45 among likely voters, a 5-point margin within the survey’s 5.2-percentage-point credibility interval. The race, which has drawn national attention, pits Cooper’s name recognition and fundraising advantage against Whatley’s reliance on Trump’s political capital.
Polls Show a Tight Race, but Challenges Remain
The High Point University survey, conducted August 3-12, revealed a shifting landscape in the race. Among all self-identified registered voters, Cooper led 48-41, with 8% unsure or saying they would not vote and 4% saying they would pick someone else or another party. While the 7-point gap in this broader group falls outside the poll’s 4.3-point credibility interval, the results reflect a tightening contest compared to earlier surveys. Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political science professor, warned against overinterpreting the data, noting the online methodology and 5-point margin of error. One has to be careful about slicing the results too thin. It was also an online poll, as I understand it. I’d be wary of investing too much meaning in a couple point shift from previous polls when the margin of error is 5 points,
he said. But having said all that, a smallish shift is not surprising, given the recent unpopularity of the Iran War, and persistent inflation and interest rate concerns. It’s still anyone’s race, even though I agree with Cook that it looks like it’s leaning toward the Dems. And Cooper may not have as much of the negativity associated with the Democratic brand as some other candidates.
Trump’s Crime Messaging and the Risk of Alienation
President Donald Trump has made crime a central theme in his campaign for Whatley, framing the race as a choice between safe leadership and Democratic softness on law enforcement. At a rally in Gastonia, N.C., Trump accused Cooper of enabling rapes and murders and vowed to protect families. You can either vote for Roy Cooper to set loose criminals who rape and murder your children and your population, or you can vote for Michael Whatley to protect and defend your children and your population,
he said. The speech included graphic details of violent crimes, a tactic that has drawn both support and criticism.
Whatley, who once served as Trump’s RNC chairman, has aligned his campaign closely with the president’s messaging. Under Roy Cooper’s reign, North Carolina became the most expensive state in the nation for health care costs,
he claimed, countering Cooper’s focus on economic issues. However, the strategy carries risks. A recent analysis found that crime ranks lower than the economy and healthcare among U.S. voters’ top concerns, and Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina stands at 42%, with 54% disapproving. So that narrative has to change to give them a path here in North Carolina,
said Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, referring to the need to address economic anxieties.
Trump’s involvement has also drawn scrutiny over the blurring of institutional boundaries. Attorney General Todd Blanche spoke at Whatley’s rally, an unusual move that reflects the president’s influence over federal law enforcement. It’s a break from tradition for the attorney general to appear at partisan political rallies, but Trump has eroded some of the post-Watergate norms that sought to insulate the nation’s top law enforcement officer from politics,
one analyst noted.
What’s Next for the Race?
With less than six months until Election Day, both campaigns are accelerating their efforts. Cooper’s team is leveraging his name recognition and fundraising edge, while Whatley relies on Trump’s endorsement to energize conservative voters. The race’s resolution will not only determine North Carolina’s Senate seat but also signal the broader political climate for 2026. As one strategist put it, A lot rides on the outcome.