Palakkad: After the cyclone formed in the Bay of Bengal gained strength, the state began to experience a change in the pattern of rain and the direction of the wind. Weather experts have observed that if the cyclonic storm becomes a low pressure and the cyclone forming in the Pacific Ocean becomes stronger, there will be continuous heavy rain and wind in the coming days and it may have a heavy impact on land and sea.
During the monsoon rain break, due to the influence of heat in the atmosphere, there are thunder showers in many places. Usually this trend does not occur at this time. This type of atmosphere occurs during the monsoon season. In the last few days, rain and wind which lasted for more than an hour in Erumeli, Kumali and Kezhikead Koodaranji caused huge damage. There were flash floods in Kellam Achankevi and the eastern region of Kettayam.
Locally heavy rains and cyclones were also seen more this year. There is a possibility of repeating this pattern in the coming days as well. Due to the break in the monsoons, the soil moisture has decreased, providing some relief in the forecast of heavy rains in the coming days, but it is also observed that if the low pressure and cyclonic storms intensify, the situation will be unpredictable in some years.
Today’s indications are that a weak Monsoon will reach the Bay of Bengal from the direction of Sri Lanka and return with the strength of the low pressure. Its symptoms started to appear in the atmosphere. Monsoon, including the Himalayan side, will start moving towards the south the next day. The eddy in the Pacific Ocean will largely determine the intensity of rainfall for the coming day. It is concluded that if the two depressions that are currently forming come together, the state will receive heavy rain on August 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Heavy rainfall of 21 cm per hour is not predicted today, but weather scientists do not deny its possibility. The Central Meteorological Department has forecast heavy rain till 7, but the same weather will continue after that. Coastal areas have also been alerted due to the possibility of severe damage to the sea.
The strong sun during the break of monsoon warms the Earth’s surface. This will cause the moisture there to turn into strong steam. The intensity of this will increase if the rain gets colder at night. It reaches the atmosphere in a continuous, one-on-one pattern and cools down into cumulus clouds. During heavy rain in the evening, electric charge is formed from these clouds, which causes severe thunderstorms. The reason for cumulus clouds at this time is the phenomenon of alternating rain and sun. Heavy thunder and lightning are increasing during the monsoon season. Studies are going on about phenomena including this.
Day M.G.Manage, Meteorologist (CUSAT Radar Research Centre)
While the trawling will end on Sunday midnight, the seven-day curfew has put the coastal region in more trouble. Due to the change in weather, the availability of fish in the sea has changed to a situation where the trawling days this time and the time before that have passed. The coastal residents had been preparing for it for a week, hoping to go out for fishing at least from Monday. A warning of heavy lightning and rain is a warning to pay more attention to at sea.
Medals of various weather research agencies indicate that all the districts will receive continuous rain in the coming days. Most of the models also show the possibility of heavy rain. According to the latest estimates, the state has recorded 26% less than the normal rainfall since June 1.
At the district level, Alappuzha (39%), Thiruvananthapuram (36%) and Kellam (38%) have the least. Kasaragod received more rain – 12%. Nearby Kannur – 19%. Although the IMD has currently declared an orange alert in seven districts due to the intensification of rains, it is indicated that the authorities have verbally instructed them to exercise caution commensurate with the red alert situation. This warning is in view of the possibility of sudden changes in the intensity of rain in some places. Problems are also likely to be localized.
English Summary: Kerala Weather Forecast for August First Week