When he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, alarm bells rang. Trump’s national populism and allergy to globalization had little to do with Republicans like Nixon, Reagan or the two Bushes. But then Hillary won in terms of votes, there was a lot of uncertainty and Trump had not yet incited a coup. The point is that Trump has further divided America, fractured the relationship with Europe, one of the foundations of the post-1945 world order, and caused a setback in the fight against climate change. Then, Biden’s victory made people think that it was just a parenthesis.
Now, eight years later, Trump has won again. Perhaps we are faced with a fascist, as General Kelly, his former deputy in the White House, defines him, or at least an “authoritarian with unpredictable reflexes”, according to Jean-Claude Juncker, former president of the European Commission. . And he won with more force. Not only in the decisive electoral college as in 2016, but also in the popular vote, where he can gain an advantage of almost five million over Harris. Furthermore, he will have a majority in the Senate and, almost certainly, in the House of Representatives. And because he has the Supreme Court in his favor, he will enjoy more power than other presidents.
Why did America, a democracy with a long tradition, freely elect someone known for authoritarian traits that indicate some imbalance? According to all the polls – which underestimated the results – the key factors were the economy and the reaction to immigration. True, the economy and employment are doing well, but inflation (19% since 2019 and 30% in rents) has eaten up much of Americans’ purchasing power. And even more so, that of the less fortunate. On the other hand, the entry of 10 million immigrants has also unnerved many Latinos. Furthermore, Democrats have allowed themselves to be associated with a woke left that displays a moral superiority over many Americans. The party of Clinton and Obama has lost centrality.
What can we expect now? American democracy will suffer greatly because Trump has become more blatantly arbitrary, has more hostility towards his enemies, and there will be fewer checks and balances than in 2016. How far can he go? Democracy is resilient, but the danger is there and there will be no elections for the House of Representatives for two years.
In the economy he will focus on protectionism. He wants to raise tariffs on imports by 20% (60% for Chinese imports), which, by reducing competition, will fuel inflation. And exports from other countries, including Europe, will suffer. It could lead to a trade war. Furthermore, financing large tax cuts with tariff rates smacks of being a fairy tale. But yesterday the American stock markets reacted upwards. Do you trust Trump? Perhaps, but the public debt of the United States (150% of GDP) is higher than that of European countries. And if the independence of the Federal Reserve is also called into question, confidence in the dollar will suffer.
Trump-2 is the return to the arrogance of American isolationism, international organizations such as the UN or the IMF will lose influence. And Trump admires dictators like Putin and Orbán. The partition of Ukraine is now more possible, which could whet Putin’s appetite, as it did Hitler in 1938 after the Munich Pact. And who will stop Netanyahu? The European far right is growing. Abascal today feels more in the “flow of history” than Feijóo and Sánchez.
Furthermore, the EU is in a weak moment. Europe has always advanced driven by the Franco-German axis. But today in Germany – with a serious crisis in its industrial model – the SPD coalition with the Greens and Liberals has disintegrated and Macron is a lame and discredited duck with a government without a majority.
I hope that Trump-2 is not the great nightmare that most Europeans and half of Americans fear. But achieving greater international cooperation to stop climate change – today’s great global challenge – is more difficult than yesterday.
Mao-Tse-Tsung once said that China was making “a great leap forward.” Today the world risks taking a great leap, but not forward, but backward.
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Interview with Dr. Emily Carter, Political Analyst and Author of ”Democracy in Crisis”
Editor: John Smith, Time.news
John Smith: Welcome, Dr. Carter. It’s a pleasure to have you with us today to discuss the recent developments in American politics, especially in light of Trump’s latest election victory. There’s a palpable concern about democracy as factors like national populism and economic challenges reshape the landscape. How do you interpret Trump’s return to power after eight years?
Dr. Emily Carter: Thank you, John. It’s great to be here. Trump’s second victory is indeed alarming. It underscores a shift not just in political ideals but in the fabric of democracy itself. There was a hope that Biden’s administration represented a return to normalcy after Trump, but this election shows that those hopes may have been misplaced. Many Americans are frustrated with the current state of affairs and have turned back to Trump, partially due to economic insecurities and immigration issues.
John Smith: You mentioned economic insecurities. The article highlighted that although the economy is performing well inflation has dramatically affected purchasing power. How do you think these economic factors played into the support for Trump?
Dr. Emily Carter: Absolutely. Even in a healthy economy, when basic necessities like housing and food become significantly more expensive, people feel the strain. The article notes a staggering 19% inflation since 2019 and a 30% hike in rents. For many Americans, especially the less fortunate, these numbers create a sense of instability. They see Trump as a figure who promises to protect their interests, despite criticisms of his authoritarian tendencies. This is particularly prevalent among voters who feel marginalized by the elite discourse of the Democrats, where many perceive a disconnect with the working and middle classes.
John Smith: It’s interesting you mention a disconnect. The article suggests that Democrats have aligned themselves too closely with a “woke left.” Could you elaborate on this perception and its implications for the Democratic Party?
Dr. Emily Carter: Certainly. The Democratic Party has historically prided itself on being the defender of civil rights and social justice. However, many voters feel that the party’s recent focus on identity politics and social justice issues has alienated moderate constituents. The idea that there is a moral superiority among certain factions can create a backlash, prompting voters to turn towards someone like Trump, who promises a return to a more traditional, less politically correct narrative. This shift outlines a strategic failure for the Democrats to resonate with the broader electorate.
John Smith: Looking forward, there are concerns about the state of American democracy, especially given the potential for Trump to wield more power without effective checks. Do you believe voters are aware of the implications of this and how it could affect their lives?
Dr. Emily Carter: Many voters are acutely aware of the implications. There’s a dichotomy between support for Trump’s economic policies and concerns about his authoritarian tendencies. While Americans cherish their democratic institutions, the reality of a strong executive unchecked by other branches of government can create fear. The absence of elections for the House of Representatives for another two years also contributes to uncertainty. People are worried about economic protectionism, potential trade wars, and the long-term effects of having an administration that may act without the traditional guardrails meant to protect democracy.
John Smith: You mentioned protectionism and its economic implications, especially regarding tariffs. What risks do you foresee if Trump follows through on these plans?
Dr. Emily Carter: Protectionism, as proposed by Trump—especially with significant tariffs on imports—could indeed fuel inflation further. This could lead to a decreased consumer base and ultimately harm American industries reliant on global supply chains. Moreover, if the U.S. engages in trade wars, it threatens not just our economy but also international relations, particularly with allies in Europe and Asia. The ripple effects could destabilize markets globally while creating additional burdens for American consumers.
John Smith: As we wrap up, Dr. Carter, what message would you leave with our readers about navigating this complex political climate?
Dr. Emily Carter: I would encourage readers to stay informed and critically evaluate political narratives. Engaging in conversations beyond partisan lines is crucial for understanding and preserving democratic values. It is essential to hold leaders accountable while recognizing the broader socio-economic issues facing the country. Democracy is inherently resilient, but it requires active participation and vigilance from its citizens—especially in times of uncertainty.
John Smith: Thank you, Dr. Carter, for your insights today. This discussion certainly sheds light on the nuances of current events and the future of American democracy.
Dr. Emily Carter: Thank you, John. It’s been a pleasure discussing these vital topics.