The upcoming week in Spain is expected to bring about a significant change in the climate. An atmospheric ridge, which has been dominating the region for some time, will temporarily disappear, allowing a trough to cross the peninsula between Monday and Tuesday.
This trough is likely to detach and form a DANA (Detached Upper Level Depression) in the western Mediterranean Sea. The interaction of cold air at the middle level of the troposphere, with temperatures ranging from -12 to -14 ºC, combined with intense terrestrial heating and the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea, will create a strong contrast in temperatures, increasing the risk of very intense rainfall and storms.
First Storm and Unseasonal Rain
According to the European model, this will be the first week with positive rainfall anomalies in Spain in over a month. The North-East, East, and the Balearic Islands are expected to receive above-average rainfall, with accumulations exceeding 30 l/m² above normal in areas such as the Pyrenees and the Balearic Sea.
On Monday, there is a possibility of rain and storms in the north and northeast, particularly intense in the Pyrenees, the Iberian System, the Cantabrian Mountains, and parts of Navarra and La Rioja. Instability will increase in the northern part of the peninsula on Tuesday, affecting Galicia, Cantabria, Navarra, La Rioja, Castilla y León, Huesca, and the interior of Catalonia, with significant storms in Aragon, Navarra, La Rioja, and the Valencian Community.
By Wednesday, the strongest storms could move towards the Mediterranean Sea, affecting the coast of Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, the Valencian Community, and the Murcia region, while rain continues in the north and north-east of the peninsula.
Temperature Drop
Monday will be the hottest day of the week, with maximum temperatures above 35 ºC in many areas of the center-south, northern plateau, Ebro Valley, southeast interior, Balearic Islands, and Canary Islands. AEMET has issued an orange alert for temperatures up to 39 °C in Ribera del Ebro, in Zaragoza.
However, from Tuesday, the situation will change with the advance of the trough, causing a general drop in temperature. The intense heat is restricted to the southwest of the peninsula. In the second half of the week, maximum temperatures will range between 29 and 33 ºC in most areas, and even lower in stormy areas.