Zten days before the repetition of the parliamentary elections in Berlin, the CDU is expanding its lead in the polls. According to a representative survey by infratest dimap on behalf of ARD published on Thursday, the CDU would get 25 percent if the elections were held this Sunday. The second strongest force would be the SPD with 19 percent, with the governing mayor Franziska Giffey. The Greens would have 18 percent, the Left 12 percent, the AfD ten percent and the FDP six percent. Other parties accounted for a total of ten percent.
If the poll result were also the election result, mathematically different three-party alliances led by the CDU with top candidate Kai Wegner would be possible. Whether Wegner will actually succeed in forging a government alliance in the event of an election victory remains to be seen – according to the figures, the current coalition of SPD, Greens and Left could continue because they would still have a majority in the House of Representatives.
Election polls are generally fraught with uncertainties
In the House of Representatives elections on September 26, 2021, the SPD achieved 21.4 percent. The Greens were in second place with 18.9 percent, followed by the CDU with 18.0 percent. At that time, the left received 14.1 percent, the AfD 8.0 and the FDP 7.1 percent. Because many problems and mistakes arose during the election, the Berlin Constitutional Court ordered a complete rerun, which will take place on February 12.
Election polls are generally subject to uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for the opinion research institutes to weight the data they collect. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a forecast for the outcome of the election.
For the representative ARD pre-election survey, infratest dimap surveyed 1,540 eligible voters in Berlin between January 30 and February 1 by telephone and online. According to ARD, the range of fluctuation (error tolerance) is two to three percentage points.