STEPHENVILLE, TX – The Tarleton State Texans (12-13) will host the Abilene Christian Wildcats (12-13) Monday night at Wisdom Gym in a Western Athletic Conference matchup. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with Tarleton State currently favored by 1.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. This game marks the second meeting between the two teams in just four days, after Abilene Christian defeated Tarleton State 73-59 on Saturday.
The Texans are looking to avenge that loss and improve their conference record, while the Wildcats aim to build on their recent momentum after winning back-to-back games. Both teams currently hold losing records in WAC play, with Tarleton State at 3-9 and Abilene Christian at 4-8. The game carries added weight as both teams navigate the middle of the conference schedule and jockey for position heading into the WAC Tournament.
A key factor in this contest will be the status of Tarleton State guard Dior Johnson, who has been sidelined since January 21 with an undisclosed injury. While the Texans managed a win against Southern Utah on February 7 without Johnson, his absence undoubtedly impacts their offensive firepower. Johnson leads the team with 23.6 points per game, shooting efficiently from the field and at the free-throw line.
Despite Johnson’s absence, Tarleton State boasts a strong defensive identity, ranking second nationally in steals per game and forcing opponents into the most turnovers in the country. This disruptive style of play will be crucial in containing Abilene Christian’s offense, which is led by forward Bradyn Hubbard, averaging 15.8 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Hubbard has been a consistent scoring threat for the Wildcats, and his performance will be vital to their success on Monday night.
Abilene Christian’s Recent Turnaround
The Wildcats experienced a challenging stretch in WAC play, enduring a seven-game losing streak after a 2-1 start. Though, they’ve recently found their stride with consecutive victories over UT Arlington and Tarleton State. This resurgence has been fueled by strong performances from Hubbard and guard Rich Smith, who contributes 9.5 points and a team-best 4.5 assists per game. In Saturday’s win, guard Cbo Newton added 15 points, showcasing the Wildcats’ growing offensive depth.
Abilene Christian’s defensive strategy focuses on forcing turnovers, ranking 10th nationally in that category. They also excel at securing offensive rebounds, but struggle on the defensive glass and commit a high number of fouls. Opponents shoot 37.6% from three-point range against the Wildcats, a vulnerability Tarleton State could exploit.
Tarleton State’s Defensive Prowess and Injury Concerns
While the Texans suffered a 14-point loss at Abilene Christian on Saturday, they’ve generally been competitive in WAC play, with many of their losses coming by narrow margins. Their defensive strength is a hallmark of their game, generating a high volume of steals and turnovers. However, the team has been plagued by injuries, with several players, including Cam McDowell and Chris Mpaka, dealing with nagging issues.
Beyond Johnson, McDowell provides a scoring punch, averaging 13.9 points per game, and is a reliable free-throw shooter. Forward Freddy Hicks contributes 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds, adding versatility to the Texans’ lineup. The team’s depth has been tested throughout the season, with 18 different players seeing court time.
Analytical Outlook and Betting Recommendation
According to a model by Bart Torvik, Tarleton State is projected to win by 6.2 points. Despite this projection, the 1.5-point spread presents a potential value opportunity, particularly considering the Texans’ home-court advantage and defensive capabilities. The model doesn’t fully account for Dior Johnson’s injury, which could impact the game’s outcome, but Tarleton State demonstrated the ability to win without him against Southern Utah.
Tarleton State’s overall statistical profile – superior rankings in the NET, KenPom, and BPI – further supports a favorable outlook. The Texans have also consistently won by comfortable margins in their victories this season. Given these factors, the best bet appears to be backing Tarleton State to cover the 1.5-point spread at -112 odds.
WAC Standings and Game Context
As of February 16, 2026, the WAC standings are as follows:
- California Baptist: 9-4
- Utah Tech: 9-4
- Utah Valley: 8-4
- UT Arlington: 6-7
- Southern Utah: 5-8
- Abilene Christian: 4-8
- Tarleton State: 3-9
This game is a crucial matchup for both teams as they strive to climb the WAC standings. A win for Tarleton State would provide a significant boost to their tournament hopes, while a victory for Abilene Christian would further solidify their recent momentum.
The next scheduled game for both teams will be February 20, with Abilene Christian hosting Utah Tech and Tarleton State traveling to face UT Arlington. These upcoming contests will be pivotal in determining their respective positions in the WAC standings as the regular season nears its conclusion.
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