2023-06-18 17:53:00
The announced ambition to bring a “peaceful solution” to the war in Ukraine will have to be scaled back. The visit to Kiev, then to Moscow, this weekend by the African mediation delegation bringing together several African heads of state did not – unsurprisingly – open up any prospects for negotiation between the belligerents.
War in Ukraine: kyiv seeks the breach in the Russian defense
Facing the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, on June 16 in Kiev, then the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, on June 17 in Saint Petersburg, the African delegation affirmed, through the voice of the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, instigator of this initiative, his desire to see “this war is coming to an end”, and put forward his proposals. Ten in number, these include a “de-escalation on both sides”the “principle of sovereignty” countries as recognized by the UN, “security guarantees” for all parties, or even the lifting of obstacles to the export of cereals via the Black Sea.
“Very difficult to implement”
This last point is a matter of great concern for Africa, which is very dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, and whose food security and economy have been weakened by price increases due to the conflict since February 2022. agreements between Russia and Ukraine for the export of cereals were found thanks to the mediation of Turkey, but Russia regularly threatens not to renew them.
However, these proposals come at a time when they have the least chance of succeeding, at a time when Ukraine is engaged in a difficult counter-offensive aimed at liberating its southern and eastern regions, occupied by Russia. Sign of a mission opening on uncertain auspices, several Russian missiles hit kyiv on June 16, while the African delegation was there.
If he hailed interviews “sincere and fruitful”, President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out negotiations as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin has called the plan a “very difficult to implement”. In fact, the annexation by Russia of Crimea in 2014, and of four other Ukrainian regions in September 2022, seems incompatible with the recognition of the sovereignty of States “according to the understanding of the UN”.
Equidistant position
Failing to allow the opening of negotiations, this delegation, in which participated, in addition to Cyril Ramaphosa, the presidents of Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros, as well as Congolese, Ugandan and Egyptian representatives, shows above all the intention of the Africa – like Brazil and China before it – to position itself as a possible mediator with a view to eventually settling the conflict. And until then, to defend its economic interests affected by the war in Ukraine, by maintaining a more or less equidistant position between the belligerents. Like South Africa and Senegal, which have so far not condemned Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
These exchanges with Moscow should continue during the Russia-Africa summit, scheduled for the end of July in Saint Petersburg. Western countries are not left out, however. The Ukrainian conflict will be on the menu when French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna travels to South Africa on June 19 and 20.
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