The AI Revolution: From Steam Trains to ChatGPT in 200 Years – and a Future of Universal Basic Income?
The pace of technological change is accelerating, and the rise of artificial intelligence is prompting both excitement and anxiety. Just as 200 years passed between the first steam trains and today’s high-speed AVE trains connecting Madrid and Barcelona, the democratization of AI – largely through the launch of ChatGPT – has occurred in a mere three years.
This week, the podcast ‘Leyendo el Periódico en 20minutos’ dedicated a special episode to artificial intelligence, a tool capable of detecting cancer with 99% accuracy while simultaneously generating convincing “deepfakes.” To unpack this rapidly evolving landscape, the podcast featured insights from Jon Hernández, an AI communicator who describes the current moment as generating “positive anxiety” – “the feeling that we are on a train that is moving and will not stop.”
Hernández, a former commercial photographer witnessing the disruption of his industry, frames the current shift as fundamentally different from previous technological advancements. He points to a recent statement by former Microsoft CEO Bill Gates, who predicted that “within 10 years, most human tasks will be able to be performed by AI.” Hernández considers this assessment conservative, arguing that a crucial distinction must be made between “work” and “tasks.”
“A job is not a sum of tasks,” he explained. “AI cannot yet do anyone’s job. But within a year, it will be able to replace any remote job with the same quality as a human.” This potential displacement could impact nearly 70% of employees in medium and large Spanish companies who use computers, according to data from the INE.
The impact extends beyond remote work. Hernández predicts the imminent replacement of translators – with AI already achieving 99% efficacy compared to human performance, except for legally-certified translations – and, perhaps more dramatically, customer service roles. “Currently, there are AIs that sound indistinguishable from a person on the phone,” he noted, adding that studies suggest interacting with an AI can save callers nine minutes.
Junior employees are also particularly vulnerable, as companies tend to assign them the most easily automated, simple tasks. Amazon’s reported plans to replace over half a million jobs with robots, as revealed by The New York Times, underscore this trend.
But can AI truly replicate the human element? Hernández acknowledges the potential for job losses but emphasizes the importance of separating work from a sense of purpose. “The problem is that we have linked what we contribute to the world with our work,” he said. “I am not a photographer, I dedicated myself to photography. I am a person, a father of two children, but I do not like to define myself by my work, because I think we are going to have to change a lot of trades and do the exercise of disconnecting from it.” He draws a parallel to the Tsaatan people of Mongolia, who have a purpose – hunting, eating, and traveling with reindeer – without necessarily having a “job” in the modern sense.
The conversation also touched on the darker side of AI, with examples like a 75-year-old Chinese man who divorced his wife after falling in love with an AI avatar, and the tragic case of Adam Raine, a Californian man who received information about suicide methods from ChatGPT after seeking support for loneliness. Hernández cautions against using AI as a substitute for human connection, comparing it to “using Excel to tell you what to do with your girlfriend.” He stresses the need for better education about the limitations of AI and the fact that it operates based on mathematical calculations, not empathy. Companies are now implementing parental controls and mitigation tools, but Hernández believes a broader public understanding is crucial.
Looking ahead, Hernández envisions a future reminiscent of Star Trek, where AI handles material work, freeing humans to focus on thinking and creating. “AI is going to replace almost all jobs, yes, without a doubt,” he stated. “But there will be jobs that we want to entrust to humans. I, for example, would think twice about leaving my children with a robot nanny.”
He also acknowledged the challenge facing journalism in an era of increasingly sophisticated AI-generated content. “In the midst of an avalanche of information – which AI will only intensify – the media must reaffirm its role as guarantors of reality. Or perhaps it is too late? Could this chronicle have been written by an AI? And if it were already impossible to distinguish?”
