Amit Segal, the senior political commentator of News 12, states in his weekly column in Yedioth Ahronoth published this morning (Friday) that Yair Lapid is the one dictating the agenda at this stage of the election campaign, and that Netanyahu’s control of the bloc is shrinking.
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“The last ten days before the elections are the Bermuda Triangle of predictions: the trends are still too subtle to shock the seismograph, the voters have not woken up, those who are undecided have not finished deliberating. At this point in 2015, Netanyahu was still four seats behind Herzog, without any hint that he would end the elections with a landslide victory,” writes Segal.
“With all the aforementioned stars, at this stage of the election campaign the one who dictates the agenda is Yair Lapid. The three goals he achieved for himself at the moment – with an emphasis on the moment – are in his hands: he is getting closer to Likud without overthrowing Labor or Meretz; He moves the Arab parties without waking up the right-wing voters; And he anesthetizes the election system.”
According to Segal, unlike the previous rounds of elections – this time, the narrowing of Netanyahu’s control over the bloc is also evident in this week’s events.
“The support for Ben Gabir also involves Likud activists who have voted for the party for forty years. No one will care what the number of mandates for the Likud is if it achieves 61, but it will be very important to Netanyahu himself if he finishes the elections both without the majority and with thirty mandates or less.
“The repetitiousness of the election systems hides some fundamental facts that have changed in our lives: for example, the mythical claim that the Likud is able to steer the bloc’s votes as it pleases, lengthening it at its will and shortening it at its will. This was true in the two rounds in which Netanyahu gave Smotrich the necessary votes to pass the threshold, and it was true when he drew a huge number of votes and overthrew Bennett and Feiglin. But that may no longer be true.
“The first one who doesn’t understand that the rules have changed is Ayelet Shaked. Her election strategy rests on the fictional hope that Netanyahu will call to vote for her in order to save the bloc for himself. Even if he had decided to open a GMC Fatik, and if he had done it for her, it is doubtful whether it would have been enough to bring the Jewish Home into the Knesset.”
Segal added: “It is not clear if Netanyahu has a reason to shy away from a photo with Ben-Gvir, but it is quite clear that Ben-Gvir is very happy in retrospect not to be photographed with Netanyahu: the well-marketed insult and the fear that Gantz will be preferred over him helped him among right-wing voters much better than any image of The two hug or shake hands.”