analyse
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is primarily concerned with one thing: the existence of the Islamic Republic, which is unpopular in the country. The attack on Israel could jeopardize his life’s work.
Iran attacked Israel. But saving the Islamic Republic is more important to Tehran than a war against its arch-rival. Israel knows this too.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been in office for almost 35 years. The Iranian theologian is 84 years old, is considered to be in poor health and wants his life’s work – the Islamic Republic – to be in good hands when he dies. His own son Mojtaba is considered the most promising heir for this.
Whether the so-called revolutionary leader’s wish will come true is anything but certain. Since the fall of 2022 at the latest – when the serious nationwide protests began as a result of the death of the Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini – it has been obvious that the powerful in Tehran have been ruling with violence against the majority of their own population, who long for an end to the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s people are against war
This domestic political mood is likely to be an important reason why Tehran has not yet interfered in the fighting in the Middle East war. Ayatollah Khamenei also knows that going to arms is unlikely to meet with approval among the Iranian population and would also destabilize the Islamic Republic from within. No wonder that the Iranian “revolutionary leader” has always avoided Iran’s active participation in acts of war and that Hezbollah assured its largest donor of money and weapons that it would also fight against Israel alone.
Attacks created pressure
However, with April 1st and Israel’s targeted attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Tehran came under pressure to act. At the site where Hezbollah was founded in 1982 as a result of the Lebanese civil war, seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard died – including two brigadier generals. Since 18 members of the Revolutionary Guard have died in suspected Israeli attacks since October 7th, Ayatollah Khamenei was forced to take up arms – against his own aspirations, so to speak.
The fact that Iran’s attack on Israel on Sunday may not have been carried out out of Khamenei’s full conviction, but rather an action to save his own face as the leader of a strong regional power, is also made clear by the statements made by the Islamic Republic shortly afterwards. During the night it was said that the matter “could be considered closed.” Hardly a word was heard about the extent to which the campaign was successful.
Military counterattack feared
It is doubtful that Khamenei will now find peace again and can devote himself to other issues. Because he must expect that Israel is now considering a military strike on Iran. As he did after the Hamas attack on October 7, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to argue that his country has been attacked and has the right to defend itself.
Should Israel launch a counterstrike, it can be expected that it will be very precise. The goals could be the establishment of the Revolutionary Guards as well as facilities for the nuclear program. However, attempts will be made to keep damage to the civilian population as small as possible.
Israel has long argued that its goal is not the destruction of Iran, but the end of the Islamic Republic – in which it is trying to place itself alongside the majority of the Iranian population. This is more than a challenge for Ayatollah Khamenei and his life’s work.