2024-05-25 05:32:16
Because the writer of the publication factors out, prior to now the West additionally feared the collapse of its geopolitical rival and enemy – the Soviet Union. US President George Bush even got here to Kiev simply earlier than Ukraine declared independence and gave the notorious “Kiev Hen Speech” to persuade Ukrainians to not secede from Moscow.
Above all, Western leaders had been involved in regards to the destiny of the Soviet Union’s gigantic army machine and its monumental nuclear arsenal. Permitting it to be redistributed amongst a bunch of newly unbiased states appeared to them the final word folly. Due to this fact, as a substitute of hastening the collapse of the Soviet empire, they tried to forestall this course of, or no less than handle it. The article argues that the identical fears are actually stopping help for Ukraine.
The writer of the publication, Peter Dickinson, is satisfied that the defeat in Ukraine is more likely to result in the collapse of the Putin regime and the start of the reform interval than the chaotic collapse of the Russian state. That is precisely what occurred after different well-known defeats of Russia prior to now: the defeat within the Crimean Warfare led to the abolition of slavery, the defeat within the battle with Japan in 1905. marked the start of Russian parliamentarism.
“If the present invasion additionally ends in defeat, there’s purpose to consider that Russia will come out of it unscathed.” In spite of everything, though withdrawal from Ukraine could be a deep wound to Russian nationwide delight, it’s unlikely that it could pose an existential risk to Russia itself,” the writer is satisfied.
The Atlantic Council advises Western leaders to cease scaring themselves with “nightmare eventualities of the longer term collapse of Russia” and give attention to the way more critical threats {that a} Kremlin victory in Ukraine might pose.
If Putin wins in Ukraine, he’ll virtually definitely transfer on. The Kremlin dictator is already bragging about his Ukrainian “conquests” and evaluating himself to the 18th century. the invincible Tsar Peter the Nice of Russia. At first of the battle, V. Putin tried to painting the invasion as a defensive measure, blaming NATO growth and imaginary “Ukrainian Nazis”. When his fortunes on the battlefield improved, he started to talk overtly in regards to the “return of traditionally Russian lands”, notes the writer of the publication.
The Atlantic Council emphasizes that “beneath the pretext of returning traditionally Russian lands,” the Kremlin might invade one other dozen neighboring international locations, from Finland to Kazakhstan.
The analytical heart additionally rejects the argument that Russia will likely be too exhausted after the victory in Ukraine, and subsequently is not going to dare to hold out new aggression.
“Sadly, such arguments don’t have in mind the influence of Russia’s success in Ukraine. A Russian victory would change the geopolitical local weather, resulting in elevated worldwide help for the Kremlin and demoralizing the West. The international locations of the International South would abandon neutrality and rush to ascertain nearer ties with Moscow,” warns the Atlantic Council.
Is the West afraid of Ukraine’s victory?
As Ukrainian UNIAN wrote, the present technique of NATO international locations relating to the battle in Ukraine is geared toward stopping both Kiev or Moscow from reaching a decisive victory. Adamas Lipovskis, professor of the Institute of Financial Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences, expressed this opinion to the information portal.
In his evaluation, the West doesn’t wish to decisively make sure the victory of Ukraine, as a result of it fears the results of the collapse of the Putin regime, particularly the chaotic unfold of Russian nuclear weapons. Due to this fact, right now the West is guided by the axiom that the prevention of the destruction of the Russian state construction has a better geopolitical precedence than the return of Ukraine to the 2014 state. partitions.
2024-05-25 05:32:16