2023-12-20 22:10:18
A crisis, what crisis? Following the chaotic adoption of the immigration bill in Parliament, the government swept aside any fracturing in the presidential camp. “There is no crisis in the majority,” tried to reassure Elisabeth Borne, the Prime Minister, on France Inter. “There is no ministerial rebellion,” also assured the government spokesperson, Olivier Véran, despite the resignation of the Minister of Health, Aurélien Rousseau. “There’s not a little bit of ‘everything is fine, Madam Marquise’,” sighs a Renaissance MP, well aware of the ambient gloom. “It’s to hope to last until the start of the school year.” And after ? Could the majority end up shattered?
Yes, because the rupture is deep internally
Since the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017, the crisis has never seemed so deep. Tuesday, 17 Renaissance deputies abstained and 20 voted againste, including the president of the Law Commission (and the CMP) Sacha Houlié, the former president of the group Gilles Le Gendre, and the former ministers Stéphane Travert and Nadia Hai. In total, including the allies Horizons and MoDem, the presidential camp missed 59 votes. Unheard of under the Macronist era.
“It was the worst day of my parliamentary life,” sighs Erwan Balanant, MoDem deputy who voted against the text. “It’s a difficult situation, I warned about the fact that Marine Le Pen was going to set a trap for us, and the risk of the majority breaking,” he adds. “The atmosphere is very heavy, there were a lot of emotions,” continues a Macronist elected official, disappointed by the government’s attitude. “Some colleagues received forms of pressure before the telephone vote, it went very badly, it will leave its mark,” she said. MP Jean-Charles Larsonneur has already slammed the door of the Horizons group in the name of “republican values”.
No, because there is reason to hope
“The majority is wavering, but it is linked to the particular context of the migratory subject,” continues Erwan Balanant. “It’s normal to worry about an implosion of the majority, but it’s not inevitable. We have to find ways to come together,” adds the MoDem elected official. And firstly on the text, because the centrist elected official from Finistère believes that the Constitutional Council could “blow up a whole bunch of provisions from the bill, which will be so many defeats for Marine Le Pen”. The government itself has contacted the Wise Men, now seeming to hope that they will end up removing the most controversial measures, particularly on family allowances. Enough to boost the morale of the majority?
“We are often accused of being shoehorned or Playmobil deputies, we have proven that this is not the case. The relative majority pushes us to compromise, and everyone was able to express their sensitivity on a very particular text,” defends Mathieu Lefèvre, Renaissance deputy for Val-de-Marne. “There was an effect of surprise in the face of the incomprehensible decision of the RN [de voter le texte], then a state of astonishment. The presence of the RN has made some people step back,” puts Anne Genetet, MP for French Abroad, into perspective. “The atmosphere was heavy, but once the emotion has passed, we must come to our senses and get back to work, text by text,” she said, referring to the next bills. On housing or that on the end of life, which already promises to be very delicate.
Yes and no: Weakened, Elisabeth Borne could jump
The government experienced strange hours of uncertainty on Tuesday, against a backdrop of threats of resignation from several ministers and parliamentary rebellion. In this uncertain climate, the head of government has never seemed so weakened. “I understand that we could ask ourselves the question of refreshment. She lost a lot of credit in the sequence, with very questionable management,” assures a member of the majority. Proof of the ambient uncertainty, Elisabeth Borne assured this Wednesday morning that the rumors of a resignation of the Minister of Health, Aurélien Rousseau, were a “non-subject”, saying she wanted to “stop commenting on things that do not exist “. A few hours later, the departure of the minister, his former chief of staff at Matignon, was nevertheless made official due to the immigration bill.
“There were people there to support her again this summer, but there aren’t many people anymore. We now need a political initiative to bounce back,” hopes a Renaissance elected official. A few months after her failure on the pension text (finally adopted by 49.3), the Prime Minister could be the ideal fuse. To get out of a crisis that she wouldn’t want to admit.
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