2023-06-24 14:53:06
Evhgeny Prigozhin’s defiance of the Kremlin with the apparent occupation of the Russian city of Rostov-on Don raises some interesting questions. Is it a new pulse from the head of the Wagner Group destined more to attract attention than to have any real effect? Can you consider that he has a chance of success in a confrontation between 25,000 and 50,000 men, as he himself has stated that they make up his battalion, against the Russian Army? How is it possible that between this Friday night and this morning he was able to impose himself on a military base of notable importance after a scintillating advance through a border region riddled with fortifications?
When the mercenary leader arrived at the South Group headquarters this morning, an arrest warrant issued by the Federal Security Service already weighed on him. However, no one has stopped him. He has quietly met with the Russian deputy defense minister, Colonel General Yunus-iek Yevkurov, and Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev. He has informed both of them that, during their advance, they have shot down three military helicopters that shot at their men. “And we’ll shoot them all down if they keep sending them,” he has promised.
According to various videos circulating on the networks, the existence of fighting on the M-4 highway in the Voronezh region, north of the city of Rostov, is not ruled out, where a fuel tank would have exploded. Some sources say that these recordings show destroyed and charred remains of transport trucks and helicopters, which would confirm the confrontation recognized by Prigozhin. In other images, Russian soldiers can be seen handing over their weapons to the mercenaries. All this has been disseminated in channels related to Wagner, although the Russian authorities have not made any recognition.
A member of the Wagner Group keeps watch from the dome of the Russian military South Group. EFE
The sequence of events seems to indicate that the mercenaries have arrived in Rostov and occupied its streets without apparent disturbances, although an alleged shooting was reported early this afternoon. This past night, some armored vehicles from the regular army and the National Guard were also visible, blocking different arteries while Wagner’s cars were positioned at the approaches. Prigozhin has subsequently appeared together with several members of his command, entering the South Group headquarters by surprise, around which there are tanks of the mercenary group.
The tanks and armored vehicles have patrolled this morning through some streets where they mixed with the Russian vehicles. Some agency images show civilians next to some of the tanks, even perched on them. At least part of the battalion would now have left for Moscow, according to information from the Lipetsk authorities who have asked the population not to leave their homes while troop vehicles cross this Russian region.
the next steps
No one knows what the immediate future will hold. Not if the Wagner Group will definitely advance towards Moscow, as promised by its boss, a pathologically deceitful individual, in search of the Minister of Defense and the military leadership that he accuses of complicating the offensive in Ukraine and of massacring his own mercenaries. It is also not clear what the reaction of Putin and his government will be in their attempt to quell the “military rebellion” and capture Prigozhin.
According to what he has reported in recent days, he would have between 25,000 and 50,000 soldiers of fortune, especially after having “discharged” some 30,000 ex-convicts a week ago, whom he recruited at the time under the promise of releasing them after fighting in the Ukrainian front. Prigozhin said that all of them had returned to Moscow or other Russian cities. The commander has shown his most bloodthirsty face precisely as a result of this requisition. During the siege of Bakhmut, Kiev accused him of launching ex-convicts, unarmed and unexperienced, against the city’s defenses for the sole purpose of discovering the positions of the Ukrainian marksmen as they fired at them. 30,000 ex-convicts fell.
A civilian moves through Rostov on a scooter in front of a tank. EFE
A priori, Prigozhin’s contingent does not seem powerful enough against the Russian army physically, but strategically and psychologically. What the Kremlin chief is least interested in now is weakening the foreign front in Ukraine and suffering his own internal war in his country, aware that in a confrontation of this type there will always be allies and detractors. Possibly, Wagner’s leader hopes to obtain the support of an important part of the army, together with the oligarchs and sectors of the population opposed to the president’s strategy. The warnings launched at the beginning of the invasion by different analysts about the risks of giving air to paramilitary companies like Wagner, which in the end could become an “army within an army” and, if necessary, an “army within an army” are now more significant than ever. counterpower” to the government.
Rostov-on-Don is a Russian city near the Azov Sea and one of the first to be found after crossing the border with Ukraine. The South Group is important. Not only because of its proximity to the muga, about a hundred kilometers away, but also because Zaporizhia Oblast is controlled militarily from there, where the nuclear power plant is located around which heavy fighting has been articulated for months, and also Crimea and Chechnya. . A region is the latter from which another independent military leader emerged, Ramzan Kadyrov, who has already warned that he is heading together with his units to the “tension zone” to quell the revolt. It has 20,000 professionals, many of them with specific training in special operations.
The forces of the two paramilitary commanders have fought side by side on different fronts over the past year and a half. Kadírov was willing last May to replace the ‘Wagnerite’ troops when Prigozhin announced his willingness to abandon the siege of Bakhmut due to the lack of ammunition supplies from Moscow. At the beginning of this month of June, Kadyrov’s units also signed the contract sent by the Ministry of Defense for all the paramilitaries to regularize their situation and join the regular armed forces. Wagner’s boss rejected the contract.
Roadblock on the outskirts of Moscow after the new anti-terror measures implemented by Putin come into force. EFE
This military district in Rostov corresponds to a percentage of the 200,000 Russian soldiers deployed in Ukraine, which the Kremlin maintains divided into five military regions. There is the base of the 58th Combined Arms Army, a veteran brigade in military conflicts and now fighting in southern Ukraine to stop the counteroffensive by Zelensky’s troops, which has caused deep concern among Kremlin analysts about the weakening that could be involved in this operation. Rostov is an important industrial and logistics center. A year before the invasion, in 2019, the Ministry of Defense sent a thousand “new fighting machines” there, in addition to 700 artillery and missile launch teams. The aerodrome, now in the hands of the paramilitaries, received some thirty new generation combat planes and helicopters. The southern district has also served as a training center for tens of thousands of soldiers.
“Putin’s Collapse”
The dizzying assault by the Wagner Group has stunned the entire world, The European Union says it is following developments with genuine concern as the UK calls for civilians to be protected. in China there is talk of “armed rebellion” while the Belarusian president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, had a telephone conversation with Putin this morning “about the situation in Russia.”
Several European leaders see in this challenge by Prigozhin a possible start to the “collapse of Putin” and wonder to what extent he has the absolute support of his army. Today, the leader of Wagner, whose statements always need to be taken with a grain of salt, has stated that on their way to the center of Rostov the recruits gave way to his men and even “hugged” them. For their part, some analysts place the index on the risks that an internal fray in the country could have, taking into account the nuclear arsenals that the Kremlin has distributed in strategic enclaves. Finally, one of the most anticipated statements, that of the Ukrainian President Volodímir Zelenski, has been an announcement of chaos for his Russian counterpart. “Russia’s weakness is obvious. The longer she keeps her troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and trouble she will have for herself later on.”
#mercenaries #Russian #army