A growing wave of corporate debt distress is rippling through the Argentine economy, with one in eight firms now facing delays in their loan payments. This increase in corporate delinquency, reaching 12.5% in January 2026, comes as household debt struggles have already tripled in the past year, hitting 9.3% at the complete of 2025. The situation highlights a broader tightening of financial conditions and raises concerns about the health of Argentina’s businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
The percentage of commercial loans in arrears rose to 2.7% in January, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month. This represents a significant jump from the 0.8% recorded in December 2024 – a more than threefold increase in just over a year. The rise is particularly pronounced among loans considered to be of intermediate risk, suggesting a growing number of companies are facing increasing difficulty meeting their financial obligations. A substantial concentration of credit within a small number of large companies further complicates the picture, with 42% of the total credit volume held by just 0.3% of firms, according to private estimates.
Disparities Between Large and Small Businesses
While overall corporate delinquency is rising, the impact is not evenly distributed. Larger companies, benefiting from stronger financial management and greater access to funding, exhibit a relatively low default rate of 0.9%. SMEs, although, are facing a much steeper climb, with a delinquency rate of 4%. This disparity is largely attributed to higher financing costs and a greater reliance on credit to cover short-term operational expenses. These smaller businesses often lack the financial buffers and negotiating power of their larger counterparts.
Data from the Central Bank’s Central de Deudores del Sistema Financiero (Cendeu) reveals a more granular view of the problem. In January 2026, 12.5% of companies that had taken out a loan were in a situation of irregularity, a 2.6 percentage point increase since the beginning of 2025. This underscores the accelerating trend of corporate debt distress. A report by Estudios Económicos del Banco Provincia highlights that the aggregate numbers can be misleading, noting that 1% of companies hold 75% of total loans, while 5% account for over 90% of the total.
Provincial Variations and Sectoral Impacts
The increase in corporate delinquency isn’t uniform across the country. Data indicates that Santa Cruz province experienced the largest increase in delinquent companies, with a 6 percentage point rise to 14.6%. La Rioja and Chubut followed closely behind with increases of 5.6 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively. Provinces with significant oil and mining activity similarly saw notable increases in delinquency rates.
The economic sectors are also experiencing varying degrees of impact. Despite a reported 10% growth in production, the fisheries sector saw its delinquency rate climb from 7% to 12.7% between January 2025 and January 2026. The agricultural sector, which experienced a 15% expansion in activity, saw its payment arrears rise to 5.7% during the same period, a 2.2 percentage point increase. Even the hotel and restaurant industry, facing a 1% production decline, experienced a nearly 5 percentage point jump in delinquency, reaching 17%.
The Weight of Smaller Loans
The burden of delinquency falls disproportionately on companies with smaller loans. Those with credit lines under $45 million have an irregularity rate of 10%, with three out of four loans of this size showing some form of delay. For the smallest businesses, the situation is even more acute, with delinquency rates nearly doubling year-over-year, from 5.5% in January 2025 to 10% in January 2026. More than 35,000 companies, representing 12.5% of all indebted firms, are currently behind on their payments. Companies with loans under $50 million account for 13.6% of those with delayed payments, while those with loans exceeding $10 billion have a delinquency rate of less than 5%.
Analysts at Estudios Económicos del Banco Provincia point out that the situation is a mirror of trends in household lending. “The irregularity of the portfolio varies inversely with the size of the company: the largest have a low and relatively stable delinquency, while the smallest already have a high and growing one,” they noted.
Looking Ahead
Addressing this growing corporate delinquency will be crucial for sustaining economic growth in Argentina. Economists at Estudios Económicos emphasize the demand to stabilize and then reverse the current trend. A key factor will be increasing the availability of credit, which, given the current constrained supply, drives up interest rates and makes projects less viable. The next key data release to watch will be the Cendeu report for February 2026, expected in late March, which will provide an updated snapshot of the situation and indicate whether the trend is stabilizing or continuing to worsen.
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