2023-10-24 04:20:28
Sergio Massa (right), candidate of Unión por la Patria, and Javier Milei, of La Libertad Avanza. Image: Agustin Marcarian/AP/picture alliance/Tomas Cuesta/Getty ImagesCristina Papaleo (from Buenos Aires)
The victory of the Peronist Sergio Massa in the first round raises questions and, at the same time, causes a certain tranquility in the Argentine political scene. On November 19 he faces Javier Milei in the runoff.
Already at 9:00 p.m. (local time) on Sunday (10/22/2023), the first exit results of the general elections in Argentina began to be announced, which raised fears and concern about the future in recent months. The triumph of Sergio Massa, Peronist candidate for Unión por la Patria, came against all odds, since the Minister of Economy of the Kirchnerist Government bears responsibility for the current economic debacle.
Massa will have to face Javier Milei, the far-right libertarian from La Libertad Avanza, in the second round on November 19, since neither of the two reached 40 percent of the votes.
“Precisely because it was an unexpected triumph, Massa comes out stronger from this result, because it was unexpected and because it greatly favors him,” Pablo Semán, CONICET researcher and professor at the University of San Martín, tells DW.
Moderation and excess
Paradoxically, the majority of Argentines, who are suffering from the economic crisis, elected the Minister of Economy who has failed so far in managing it. How can this phenomenon be explained? “Massa embodies, at the same time, change and continuity, as well as moderation, in the face of Milei’s excess,” observes Semán. “People do not see him as a Union for the Homeland candidate, they do not necessarily see him as a Kirchnerist, nor do they see Cristina Kirchner in him,” he emphasizes.
Meanwhile, Milei claims to have defeated “the mafia” in power, as Massa did not win in the first round, and the Together for Change candidate, Patricia Bullrich, who came third, rejects any collaboration with Kirchnerism. Part of her voters could flow to the libertarian candidate in the second electoral round.
«With a complicated government, with a completely collapsed economy, with galloping inflation and the dollar through the roof, it is truly a miracle what Sergio Massa has achieved, managing not only to enter the runoff election, but to be the best positioned to win. the upcoming election, with the possibility of adding the votes of Bregman’s left and Schiaretti’s center,” says Jaime Rosenberg, a political journalist accredited to the newspaper’s Casa Rosada. The nation, in an interview with DW. But it is not possible to make accurate predictions about who will win in the second round, since “it is not pure mathematics,” he warns.
Milei voters fear Milei himself
The appearance on the political scene of Javier Milei raised fears in many Argentines, not only about his extreme proposals – such as closing the Central Bank or converting education into a system of vouchers– but also to his statements about cutting relations with China and Brazil, Argentina’s two main trading partners. Many feared that, if they won, there could be a currency run and another crisis like the one in 2001, added to Argentina’s international isolation.
In his speech, after this Monday’s results, “Massa made it clear that presidents from different parts of the world called him and that he assured them that Argentina will follow a predictable path. He is a leader very close to the United States and the business world, where they see him as center-right,” underlines Jaime Rosenberg.
The anthropologist and sociologist Semán cites an in-person survey he conducted among 420 people about what their fears were for these elections. Of those 420 people, 31 percent said they would vote for Milei, from La Libertad Avanza, and of them, 10 percent admitted that they were afraid of Milei himself and his extreme proposals. “I believe that in Argentines there is a very strong will for change that, in part, was expressed through Milei, but that this will for change had in him a bad instrument,” he explains.
Massa and Milei shake hands during the second presidential debate in Argentina, on October 8, 2023. Image: Agustin Marcarian/AP/picture alliance
However, the extreme right will become the third force as of December, with 39 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and in the Senate, with eight. In any case, if the scrutiny figures are confirmed, Peronism will continue to have the majority of deputies and senators.
Both experts say that, at this moment, it is not possible to predict who will win the runoff, but Semán thinks that “it will be easy for Massa to add what he needs to win a second round, even though it is a lot, because, For Milei, the result is the opposite: he was betting on winning in the first round and he will reach the runoff after a defeat.”
“The primaries were a discussion about change or continuity, but as Milei became a protagonist in the first round, the discussion became ‘measurement or excess,'” he says.
Massa, a candidate for the end of the rift?
Massa, as an “amphibious” candidate, explains Semán, has a profile suitable for both Peronism and non-Peronists, and in his speech after the result he addressed voters on the left of Myriam Bregman and those of the center of Juan Schiaretti. , building bridges and, naturally, appealing to those votes for the runoff. And promising “tranquility” and “security.” Even Patricia Bullrich’s voters who did not opt for Milei could contribute to a victory for Massa in the second round.
If Masa won the second round, could that be the end of the rift, of the deep political polarization in Argentina? «I think Massa is trying to stop the conflict from being ‘Peronism vs. anti-Peronism’”, says Pablo Semán. “And Milei makes his task easier because he is an extremist candidate, who divides him, and that is rejected by many.”
For Jaime Rosenberg, since Massa has a history in terms of relations with the United States, with the West, which he would put into practice if he is president, his government would not be like that of Alberto Fernández, closer to Venezuela, Nicaragua, or Cuba. “Sergio Massa has more experience in dialogue with the elites, who are, ultimately, those who have very specific interests in international relations,” analyzes Semán, for his part.
Achieve calm in the markets
Meanwhile, the parallel dollar or blue It is listed at 1,300 pesos. What awaits the Argentine economy and the pockets of Argentinians starting this Monday? “I think that the black market dollar will fall a little, especially because, to a certain extent, the financial uncertainty that a Milei victory in the first round posed disappears, although important adjustments will come,” warns Rosenberg. In any case, “aid to various sectors will continue, as until now.”
But what concrete measures should Massa take, if he becomes president, to calm the markets and lower inflation? “That’s a big question mark,” according to Rosenberg. «It is necessary to implement a stabilization plan, to honesty of the economy, essential to be able to get out of the inflationary spiral and be able to return to a more predictable path. The substantive measures will be a challenge for the next government, starting December 10.” (ms)
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