2023-12-31 17:16:00
After decades of war and intermittent death, of unfinished disputes and endless fights, of lightning offensives and mass exodusesit seemed that the conflict over Alto Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia would be impossible to resolve.
But the Azerbaijani military victory – imposed through brute force and the forced flight of the 100,000 Armenians remaining in Karabakh – in late September of this year has changed everything. For the first time in 30 years, in which the conflict has lived frozen since 1994 With the exception of two months in 2020 and this fall, peace between these two small neighbors of the South Caucasus It seems to be closer than ever. According to the agreement reached by both countries, this January 1 the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist.
“Both sides agree to take advantage of a historic opportunity in reaching a long-awaited peace in the region. We reaffirm our intention to normalize our relationshipsand to reach a peace agreement based on respect for international principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity“said a joint statement between Yerevan y Baku —the first in history—published at the beginning of December.
Through this joint statement, Armenia also gave its support to Azerbaijan for Baku to host the international climate summit, COP29, next year. Both countries also agreed to exchange of two prisoners Azerbaijanis in Armenia for 32 Armenians in Azerbaijan. “We will continue our discussions on implementing more measures that generate more mutual trustand we call on the international community to support this effort,” the joint statement continued.
However, not everything is so simple. Both the European Union (EU) as USA y Russia They have tried to act as mediators between Baku and Yerevan, with the organization of several meetings between the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev. Aliyev has always dismissed Western efforts.
“The most interesting thing about this joint statement is that it is dangerously incomplete. There are still many soldiers and civilians detained, in addition to former Nagorno-Karabakh officers who are still in custody in Azerbaijan. It is also quite insufficient in terms of the boicot azerbaiyano to the last four diplomatic meetings that had to take place in Washington, Brussels and Grenada. However, I do hope that bilateral negotiations to reach a peace agreement will begin soon,” he says. Richard Giragosiandirector of Center for Regional Studiesand think tank in Yerevan.
Election date
The reason for this return to talks, Giragosian assures, is Aliyev’s electoral rush, who called early presidential elections in Azerbaijan by February 2024. Aliyev, who has dominated his country since 2003—when he replaced his father, Heydar Aliyev—, has re-election more than assured. But according to the expert, an almost completed peace agreement can give him a strong electoral boost.
“I know from good sources that 80% of the draft peace agreement text has already been agreed. The missing 20% is about liberation of all Armenians who are still in Azeri custody, the border delineation and the withdrawal of armed forces of Azerbaijan within Armenian territory,” explains Giragosian, referring to the small territory within Armenia in the region of Syunik which is currently under the control of the Azerbaijani Army. “But the most difficult part has already been negotiated,” says the expert.
Others, however, are not so optimistic. “Baku, by calling early elections in February, is postponing or directly avoiding the signing of the peace agreement,” he said at the beginning of December in an interview in the media ‘Free promise‘ Azerbaijani academic and former political prisoner Arif Yunuswhich continued: “Aliyev may suffer reputational damage once the text of the agreement is public. So, for the Azerbaijani president, it could be more difficult to manipulate his electoral victory if a deal is reached before the elections.”
Despite everything, the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is closer than ever: these two nations, in conflict since 1991 – although the dispute over Karabakh began before the creation of the Soviet Union— are about to finally bury the hatchets.
#Armenia #Azerbaijan #peace #war