Article by Omer Taspinar in “K”: The winning recipe for polarization and repression

2023-05-28 11:16:32

The giant poster of Erdoğan’s voluptuous figure is reflected in a window display of fashionable women’s clothing. The president of Turkey, a devotee of ultra-nationalist and Islamist ideas, abhors anything that refers to the Western way of life. Photo AP/ Khalil Hamra

To the dismay of the secular and westernized sections of Turkish society, Erdogan has once again confirmed his popularity. With 49.5% of the votes, he came very close to victory from the first round. It was not expected. After 20 years in power, most polls were showing him back and his air of invincibility seemed finally to be coming to an end.

With real inflation in the triple digits, 50,000 dead in an earthquake that exposed poor governance, and the opposition firmly united, economic and political conditions seemed ripe for change. Many analysts expected a comfortable win for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who ran a clean campaign focusing on basic day-to-day issues without engaging in identity politics.

Erdogan’s religious nationalist alliance has already secured a governing majority in Parliament. Kilicdaroglu has a losing streak against Erdogan. So there is intense frustration in the demoralized opposition.

So what explains Erdogan’s undiminished popularity? The short answer is that it has the ability to polarize the country. Erdogan knew his only chance to win was to play the nationalism card. And this he did, conducting an election campaign with a negative character, which reached unprecedented levels of terror.

His job was made easier when a Kurdish party decided to back Kilicdaroglu instead of fielding its own candidate. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is a legitimate political party that condemns violence. However, Turkish nationalists see him as having close ties to terrorism.

Erdogan’s disinformation campaign constantly showed Kurdish fighters on big screens defending Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy during political rallies in the heart of Anatolia. In addition to this polarizing nationalism, Erdogan also masterfully played the religion card. It systematically presented the secular opposition as friendly to the LGBTI community and opposed to traditional family values.

Erdogan knew his only chance to win was to play the nationalism card. And this he did, conducting an election campaign which reached unprecedented levels of terror.

Elections are neither free nor fair in Turkey. Having established a repressive regime and a strong media hegemony, Erdogan had clear advantages over his rival. He didn’t have to steal the vote. He simply relied on his propaganda machine and his unshakable bond with the conservative masses.

Also, Kilicdaroglu was probably wrong to lean too much on the economic recession in formulating his campaign message. Yes, the Turkish economy is troubled with uncontrollable inflation. However, two problems arose from the assumption that the decline in purchasing power would outweigh threats to national security and identity politics.

First, the opposition failed to understand that the manufactured national security threat – with warnings of imminent Kurdish autonomy – resonated with Erdogan’s nationalist religious base. The Kurdish issue is perhaps the most polarizing issue in Turkish politics. Most Turks are concerned that the United States supports Kurdish autonomy in Syria and Turkey. Therefore, Kilicdaroglu took a calculated risk in seeking support for Kurdish nationalism in Turkey. This was a sign of political courage and democratic maturity in the eyes of liberal Turks like me. But liberals are a tiny group in Turkey compared to the overwhelming dominance of Turkish nationalism.

The second problem with emphasizing the economy over all other issues was that there was no such economic crisis as a great depression. Rampant inflation is something Turks can tolerate as long as there is no mass unemployment and a major financial crisis. The Turkish economy is not in recession. Erdogan’s much-mocked economic model is based on economic growth at any cost. He was determined to avoid high interest rates because the recession they would cause would likely end his re-election chances. Instead, Erdogan has preferred a high-inflation, high-growth model where he can still exercise economic populism by raising wages, reducing pension thresholds and handing out financial credits to his cronies.

If Erdogan wins, the next five years will see even more political repression and populist nationalism in the country. Relations with the West are unlikely to improve unless the economy collapses and Erdogan has to resort to an IMF bailout. Despite all the upcoming challenges, the opposition must not give up the fight. Erdogan is not expected to run for another term. He is overworked and his health is said to be shaky. Turkish democracy will remain alive as long as elections continue to determine winners and losers.

Erdogan is once again proving very good at winning elections even when the odds are against him. He doesn’t need to “steal” the vote. His repressive political system, populist nationalism, and conservative masses work in his favor, even as the economy suffers from his mismanagement.

Mr. Omer Taspinar is Professor of National Security at the National Defense University in Washington and the Johns Hopkins School of Graduate International Studies.