Asteroid 2024 YR4: Nuke to Prevent Moon Impact?

Nuclear Option on the Table? Scientists Weigh bombarding Asteroid Headed for the Moon

A potential collision with the moon in 2032 has prompted scientists to consider a drastic measure: detonating a nuclear weapon to prevent a cascade of space debris that could threaten satellites and astronauts.

Scientists are investigating asteroid 2024 YR4, initially flagged in December 2024 as posing a 3.1% risk of impacting Earth in 2032. While subsequent observations dramatically reduced the probability of an Earth impact to less then 0.28% as of February 2025, a new concern has emerged – a roughly 4% chance the asteroid will collide with the moon.

Lunar Impact and the Threat to Earth Orbit

A collision with the moon, while not an existential threat to Earth, is far from benign. An impact from an object approximately 180 feet (55 meters) in diameter would generate a significant amount of lunar ejecta,launching regolith – the moon’s top layer of dust and small rocks – into space. This would substantially increase the amount of micrometeoroid debris in low Earth orbit.

According to a new study posted September 15 on the preprint server Arxiv, the resulting debris flux could be up to 1,000 times “above background levels…possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft.” These tiny space rocks pose a risk of puncturing spacecraft hulls and spacesuits, jeopardizing missions like those to the International Space Station (assuming it remains operational beyond its planned 2031 deorbit).

Did you know? – Lunar regolith is composed of sharp, abrasive particles.Even microscopic impacts can cause significant damage to sensitive spacecraft components.

Deflection Dilemmas and the “nuke It” Scenario

Attempts to alter the asteroid’s course, however, carry their own risks. Researchers caution that the uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4’s mass makes a conventional deflection mission – nudging it off course – highly unpredictable. “An ill-planned deflection mission could accidentally push the asteroid toward Earth,” the researchers wrote.

NASA demonstrated asteroid deflection capabilities with the DART mission in 2022, successfully altering the orbit of the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos. However,the complexities of 2024 YR4 render a similar approach “impractical.”

Instead, the study explores more aggressive options. One proposal involves sending a spacecraft to intentionally break up the asteroid into smaller pieces. While untested, this concept has a launch window between April 2030 and April 2032.

The most radical suggestion? A nuclear detonation. NASA could perhaps launch a rocket-propelled nuclear device to detonate on or near the asteroid between late 2029 and late 2031.This method, while also untested, is considered theoretically possible.

Pro tip: – Asteroid mass is difficult to determine from Earth. Accurate measurements are crucial for successful deflection or disruption attempts.

A 96% Chance of a Miss, But a Call for Preparedness

Despite the discussion of extreme measures, the researchers emphasize that there is still a 96% probability that 2024 YR4 will pass the moon without incident. Nevertheless, they view this situation as a valuable possibility to advance research into asteroid mitigation strategies.

“They call on other researchers to provide estimated build times for spacecraft, and to create more

Why is this happening? In December 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 was identified as potentially impacting Earth in 2032. While the earth impact risk has decreased to under 0.28% as of February 2025, a 4% chance of a lunar collision has emerged, prompting concern over increased space debris.

Who is involved? NASA scientists and researchers are investigating the asteroid and exploring mitigation