2023-12-11 22:03:25
The growth of the Asturian economy will be at a rate of 2.1% this year, three tenths below the national average, increasing slightly in 2024 and 2025, in both cases up to 2.2%, according to the forecast. announced yesterday by the economic prediction service Hispalink-Asturias, linked to the University of Oviedo. If the forecast materializes, the Asturian GDP will improve next year by one tenth more than that of Spain, but in 2025 it will once again be below, with a differential of four tenths compared to the country as a whole.
According to this projection, while in the current year the Asturian economy will be the tenth in dynamism (tied with Extremadura and La Rioja), in 2024 it will be the fifth that progresses the most along with Andalusia, and in 2025 it will drop to twelfth place, at the same level than Aragon and Castilla y León.
For this year, growth slightly above 2% is again based on the good performance of the services sector (3%) and construction (2.4%), while the regional industry faces difficulties (it will close the year with a decline 0.3%), and agriculture will confirm a sharp decline (-15.3%).
According to Hispalink, the current information available confirms the decline of the agricultural sector in Asturias, which is accumulating declines in meat and milk production and in fishing catches.
The regional industrial slowdown that began at the end of last year has worsened during 2023, the report adds. The latest estimates provided by the Industrial Production Index (IPI) of the INE for Asturias and by Sadei indicate that the regional industry accumulates an interannual rate of around -5% until October. The analysis by branches confirms the especially unfavorable behavior of energy (-23%).
The most favorable industrial data corresponds to sectoral prices, which have accumulated a drop of -17.6% until October, much higher than those estimated during the same period for the rest of the region and Spain as a whole. Hispalink expects industrial prices to close 2023 with negative interannual rates. In services, the good performance of passenger air transport and the main tourism indicators stands out.
Consumption is also dynamic, as reflected – the document maintains – by the general sales and food indices, with accumulated rates until October of 9.1% and 9.9%. Passenger car registration has grown by 5.4% until October and fuel consumption has increased by 4% until September.
2023 has been characterized, as is the case in the Spanish economy, by “greater dynamism in the first half” and “more discrete rates in the second half of the year as a consequence of the slowdown in the growth of service activities and the greater industrial weakness”. For 2024, conversely, greater weakness is anticipated in the first half “as a consequence of the drag on the last stretch” of 2023, and “a reactivation of the national and regional economies in the second half” of the year.
All sectors will grow next year in Asturias, except industry, which will decline by 0.5% and will not start growing until 2025, with a progression for that year of 1.6%, although it will continue to be below the rest of the sectors. activities, with the exception of the primary sector, which will then enter into decline again with a fall of 6% after a recovery of 1.9% in 2024.
Employment
Hispalink’s projections suggest that the Asturian labor market will continue its “good performance” until the end of this year, with “significant increases in employment” (although with lower interannual rates than expected for Spain) and a reduction in registered unemployment of 6 .7% at the end of the year, similar to the behavior observed until November. The drop in unemployment will be generalized in all sectors, except in the group of jobseekers without previous employment, in which a slight increase (0.2%) is expected at the end of this year.
#Asturias #grow #year #driven #services