Wallabies on Brink of Historic Low: Schmidt’s Reign Faces Final Test Against France
Australia’s rugby team is facing a crisis of confidence and performance, teetering on the edge of a historically poor finish to 2025 and jeopardizing their seeding for the 2027 Rugby World Cup hosted on home soil. Just months after stunning victories over South Africa and the British & Irish Lions ignited hopes of a resurgence, the Wallabies have plummeted into a dispiriting losing streak, culminating in a series of damaging defeats on their European tour.
From Triumph to Turmoil
The dramatic shift in fortunes is stark. As recently as August, the Wallabies celebrated a momentous victory over the world champion Springboks in Johannesburg, followed by a dominant performance against the British & Irish Lions in Sydney. A hard-fought win against Argentina further fueled optimism, leading many to proclaim, “The Wallabies are back.” However, that sentiment now feels like a distant memory.
Australia has since lost six of their last seven Tests, including a crushing 46-19 defeat to Ireland, a humbling loss to Italy (ranked 10th in the world), and a 25-7 setback against England. A loss this weekend to France would mark the Wallabies’ first winless tour of Europe in 67 years.
Statistical Disaster Looms
The consequences of continued failure are significant. A defeat in France would leave the Wallabies with a dismal 5-10 win-loss record for 2025, translating to a winning percentage of just 33.3%. This would statistically make them the worst Wallabies side in history. Beyond the immediate embarrassment, a poor record could cost them a crucial top-six seeding for the 2027 Rugby World Cup, a potentially devastating blow to a sport struggling to maintain relevance in a competitive Australian sporting landscape.
There remains a sliver of hope. A victory over France by a margin of 16 points or more would dramatically improve their world ranking, lifting them to sixth place and potentially relegating the 2023 World Cup finalists to seventh. However, the current form suggests such a turnaround is a long shot.
Schmidt Under Scrutiny
Much of the blame is falling on head coach Joe Schmidt. While the 60-year-old initially injected competitiveness into the squad by blooding 19 new players in 2024, the decision by Rugby Australia to extend his contract beyond the 2025 Rugby Championship is now widely viewed as a misstep.
Schmidt attributes the team’s struggles to injuries, a lack of depth, and fatigue. However, critics point to a lack of tangible progress and an empty trophy cabinet. With the Australian Football League (AFL) launching a State of Origin competition in 2026 and the National Rugby League (NRL) expanding, Rugby Australia faces increasing pressure to act decisively.
The planned “orderly transfer” of coaching duties from Schmidt to Les Kiss in mid-2026 has been disrupted by the departures of key personnel, including scrum guru Mike Cron and lineout chief Geoff Parling, leading to a significant decline in the team’s set-piece performance. A complete reset, with the “Kiss Army” assembled sooner rather than later, is now being called for.
Aerial Ineptitude and a Need for Australian Grit
The immediate challenge is overcoming a French side renowned for its kicking game, a tactic that exposed the Wallabies’ vulnerabilities in the 2025 Six Nations. “No team can hurt the Wallabies more than Fabien Galthié’s kick-crazy side,” analysts note. The Wallabies’ recent aerial struggles have become emblematic of their broader decline, with forwards losing six lineouts against Ireland and backs consistently spilling kicks.
The issue, according to Schmidt, is a lack of fundamental catching skills. “A lot of it is players going up one-handed and just looking to create a bit of chaos,” he explained after the Dublin defeat. “It’s a scramble, a mad scramble… you’ve just got to try to get into the contest really effectively and then get players around the contest to make sure you get the best chance of getting anything that’s left over.”
The irony is not lost on observers, particularly given the emphasis on marking skills in Australian Rules Football. “A wallaby who can’t jump? It’s like a sick joke,” one commentator remarked. The suggestion that coach Craig McRae of the Collingwood AFL team simply “observed and chatted” with the squad, rather than providing practical coaching on marking techniques, has drawn criticism.
A Call for Cross-Code Collaboration
For too long, Australian rugby has lamented the competition from league and Australian rules for talent. Instead of viewing these codes as rivals, the argument goes, rugby should actively seek to integrate skills from both. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, a player with experience in league, AFL, union, and basketball, is seen as the ideal prototype for this “mongrel footballer.” Wallaby great Tim Horan observed, “Joseph tackles like a leaguie, leaps like a basketballer and marks like an AFL player.”
However, Suaalii’s impact has been limited since his promising debut. Despite being shortlisted for World Rugby’s men’s breakthrough player of the year, he has largely abandoned his aerial dominance, opting instead to tap the ball back to teammates, often resulting in lost opportunities.
This, critics argue, is a failure of coaching. Schmidt, they contend, should be harnessing Suaalii’s unique athleticism to create havoc on the field, rather than settling for a more conservative approach. “He should be the Australian archetype: a warrior who can soar, seize and create havoc,” one analyst stated. “Instead, he just tackles, the rugby equivalent of flagging down a Ferrari to drag your bullock cart out of the mud.”
The Wallabies are stuck, and time is running out to rediscover their winning formula.
FRANCE: Thomas Ramos; Damian Penaud, Nicolas Depoortere, Gael Fickou, Louis Bielle-Biarrey; Romain Ntamack, Maxime Lucu; Jean-Baptiste Gros, Julien Marchand, Regis Montagne; Thibaud Flament, Emmanuel Meafou; Anthony Jelonch, Charles Ollivon, Gregory Alldritt (Capt.). Replacements: Maxmee Lamothee, Rodrigues Neti Laclayat, Romaina, Roraoua, Oscar Jebu, Baptist Jauneau, Baptist Jauneau, Calvig Gurgus.
AUSTRALIA: Max Jorgensen; Harry Potter, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Len Ikitau, Dylan Pietsch; Carter Gordon, Jake Gordon; Angus Bell, Billy Pollard, Taniela Tupou; Jeremy Williams, Nick Frost; Tom Hooper, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson (capt). Replacements: Matt Faessler, Aidan Ross, Allan Alaalatoa, Rob Valetini, Carlo Tizzano, Kalani Thomas, Tane Edmed, Filipo Daugunu.
