2024-09-12 07:28:29
During the pandemic, it is interesting to observe what is happening in our economy. Observe and, as much as possible, compare the economic indicators of the immediate neighbors with those mentioned. The immediate neighbors are, of course, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Because Iran and Turkey are in a different economic system.
Azerbaijan officially announces that in 2020 in the first half of the year, it registered a 2.7 percent decrease compared to the previous year. And that decline is explained by global oil inflation. Moreover, the country’s Ministry of Economy “promises” that the country will be will end with a 2 percent decline. If, of course, the sale of Brent oil is $52 per barrel. But if the price of one barrel becomes 45 dollars, the decline will be 3.2 percent. Otherwise, there is talk of a 2.9-4.3 percent decline, of course, on behalf of the same ministry, but without presenting calculations. All these calculations are in some sense unrealistic. Mythically unreal. Because separate data about the economy “suggest” completely different numbers. For example, Azerbaijani passenger transportation decreased by 32.2 percent in the first half of the year. Our dropout number is even higher at 57.7 percent. Another illogical number is that the service sector in the Azerbaijani economy made up 55 percent of the GDP last year. This year, it decreased to about 24 percent and did not cause a corresponding decline in other macroeconomic indicators. The desire to approach European “numerology” still does not hide statistical meaningless numbers. The Ministry of Economy of Azerbaijan “predicts” that the economic figures depend on oil prices. For example, if the price of Brent oil is 52 dollars per barrel, the GDP will decrease by 2 percent compared to the previous year. And if it is 45 dollars, the decline will be 3.2 percent.
Compared to this almost unreal numerology, our and Georgia’s numbers are almost comparable. For example, as a result of the pandemic, the construction sector in Georgia recorded a 24.54 percent decline, and our labor force is almost the same – 24.6 percent. The index of the decline of the catering and catering industry in Georgia in 2020. for the first semester is 40 percent. And according to our statistics, 46.7 percent. In the field of culture, entertainment, recreation, the decline in Georgia is 24 percent. In our case, the number is more “tremendous” – 31.5. With such arithmetic, it remains unclear why Georgia’s economy recorded the biggest decline in the region. Compared to the same period of last year, the Georgian economy (or more precisely, the country’s GDP) decreased by 12.3 percent. None of the neighboring countries “publishes” such a number. It is also possible because in 2020 during the first semester, the official growth of our agriculture was 1.7 percent. And the official Georgian figure is 4.7 percent. But parallel to this, Georgian numbers are inferior to our official “arithmetic” in many areas. For example, in addition to agriculture, the figures of the mining industry in Georgia recorded an increase of 6.4 percent. But that’s not comparable to the 24.3 percent growth in our mining industry.
Azerbaijan hardly “shows” a decline in “epidemic” numbers. The statisticians of this country write about the decline without clarity, implying that in 2021 in the last quarter they will manage to restore the unsuccessful 2020. data-results. However, in terms of pointless “optimism”, they are closer to our pro-government theorists than Georgian specialists.
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