2023-06-26 00:05:25
Financing for families and companies will be reduced this year twice as much as last year due to the rise in interest rates. Specifically, it will fall by 1.2% although it will begin to recover in 2024 and will rebound by 3% in 2025, according to the forecasts of the latest report from the consultancy published today.
Financing conditions will continue to tighten, which will impact demand and delinquency, which will grow to 4.2% this year, according to his calculations. They estimate that high inflation coupled with improved labor market prospects will cause consumer credit to rise by 3%, but far from pre-pandemic rates.
Financing for companies will fall by 2% and mortgages will fall by 1.7% due to the rise in interest rates. The authors of the report acknowledge that the structure of the real estate market in Spain, where variable-rate mortgages predominate -which have been affected by the rise in the Euribor- has meant that our country has been more affected than others in Europe by politics ECB currency. By 2024 they expect growth of 0.4% to return.
In this context, the consultant expects the delinquency rate to stand at 4.2%, seven tenths more than in 2022, and that by 2024 it will increase to 5.8%.
Despite this, the report makes a favorable diagnosis of the Spanish economy, which it predicts will perform better than its European partners. With a significant recovery in services, especially tourism, less dependence on energy and employment recovering momentum, they forecast that Spain will grow by 2.2% this year and 1.3% in 2024. «Despite the uncertainties, we can be optimistic for the coming years, with a rate hike cycle that is coming to an end and inflation that is increasingly controlled,” says Pedro Pérez, partner at EY Spain.
#Bank #financing #plummet #delinquency #rise