Barbie, Oppenheimer, Anatomy of a Fall? Hollywood experts deliver their Oscar predictions

2023-12-31 18:09:39

Awards season specialists are lost in conjecture while waiting for the final cut of nominations on January 23. For the moment, all dreams and outsiders are allowed!

The confectioners’ truce is rarely easy in Hollywood; rather, it marks the home stretch in the race for the Oscars, a few weeks before the publication of the films and artists in the running. Already, the first trophies from critical circles have fallen. But none of the precursor ceremonies to the Oscars – notably those organized by the guilds of actors, screenwriters, directors and producers who cut across the Oscar electorate – have yet released their list of nominees. Favorites and outsiders alike can still hope to reap a shower of Oscar nominations on January 23. And be in the running to pocket a statuette on March 10.

The period is therefore the most favorable for the game of bets and predictions. In this exercise of divination there are two schools: cher crush arty (advocated by experts in Los Angeles Times) et that of statistics (based on the distinctions already obtained at festivals and the box office), adopted by Hollywood Reporter et Variety. By cross-checking their respective rankings, here are the feature films that can hope to add “Oscar nominee” to their posters from January 23.

Best film

1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
5. Winter Break (Focus) ou Without knowing us (Searchlight)
6. Poor Creatures (Searchlight)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. Past Lives -Nos vies d’avant (A24)
9. Anatomy of a fall (Neon)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

The top of the ranking is unanimous. There we find the champions of the summer box office: “Barbenheimer” and the great American tragic fresco by Martin Scorsese. In ambush lies the horrific satire Poor Creatures by Yorgos Lanthimos, big winner of the Mostra. Toronto Festival sensation, American Fiction, a portrait of an African-American writer exposed to the prejudices of the publishing world, is often mentioned. Just like the intimate pearl of Sundance Past Lives – Nos vies d’avant, the story of a platonic reunion between two childhood lovers. The shocks of Cannes, the palme d’or Anatomy of a fall and his challenger the grand jury prize The Area of ​​Interest on the Shoah, bring up the rear. Less convinced by the misadventures of those left behind at the boarding school Winter Break and the biopic Maestro, the Los Angeles Times gets behind heartbreaking LGBT romance Without knowing uswhere two London next-door neighbors haunted by loneliness and mourning become acquainted and witness a phenomenon that defies comprehension.

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor creatures)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

All publications agree on this quintessence. If a big surprise was needed to shake up the established order, it would be to be found in the imagination of Bradley Cooper at the helm of Maestroretro poetry by Alexander Payne (Winter Break). Justine Triet (Anatomy of a fall) and Céline Song (Our lives before) which would allow Greta Gerwig not to be the only woman in the category, are for the moment distant threats. Just like the talented, but divisive, Todd Haynes (May December) et Emerald Fennell (Saltburn).

Best actor

1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Paul Giamatti (Winter Break) or Andrew Scott (Without knowing us)

If the name of the first four named is not debated, the one who will bring up the rear is more uncertain. Will voters choose the experienced but often eclipsed Paul Giamatti, formidable grumpy and solitary professor of Winter Break or the aquiline Andrew Scott? Revealed by cult series Sherlock et Fleabag, the Briton finds with Without knowing us his first major leading role on the big screen.

A reservoir of surprises, this fifth place would not be stolen either if it were occupied by the poisonous intruder of sensual satire SaltburnBarry Keoghan, the lost kid of Banshees d’Inisherin, or Colman Domingo who plays civil rights activist Bayard Rustin in the film of the same name for Netflix.

Best Actress

1. Emma Stone (Poor Creatures)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie)
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
5. Sandra Hülser (Anatomy of a fall) or Annette Bening (Unsinkable) or Greta Lee (Past Lives-Nos vies d’avant)

The most contested category of these 2024 Oscars with an infernal and prodigious trio: Margot Robbie as a Barbie doll afraid of death, Lily Gladstone who would be the first Native American actress to be distinguished or Emma Stone as a Frankenstein creature discovering the pleasures of the flesh and exposing himself (literally and figuratively). Breathtaking ambiguity in Anatomy of a fallSandra Hüller will have to elbow in the face of the metamorphoses and physical performances – as the Oscars love them – of Annette Bening as an extreme swimmer and of Carey Mulligan, muse and scorned woman.

If they wanted to be daring, the members of the Academy of Oscars could favor the discreet Greta Lee, touching Korean forty-something established in New York rewinding her existence in Past Lives-Nos vies d’avant. Unless they succumb to Natalie Portman’s act of charm and hubris in May December.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Creatures)
4. Charles Melton (May December)
5. Robert de Niro (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

Throughout the summer, this category seemed to boil down to a duel between the brainless Ken, played by a Ryan Gosling drinking the chalice of ridicule to the dregs, and the devious Secretary of Commerce Lewis Strauss, sworn enemy of Oppenheimer under the features of which Robert Downey Jr. reminded us that he could play something other than Iron Man. The race has since become complicated with the entry into the running of young Charles Melton, object of the desires of Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman in May December, portrait of a toxic actress. As a young man realizing that his youth has been stolen from him, the actor discovered in the soap series Riverdale is majestic.

If voters resisted the histrionics of Robert de Niro and Willem Dafoe (Poor Creatures), they would be inspired to highlight another young premier: Dominic Sessa from Winter Break.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Winter Break)
3. Jodie Foster (Unsinkable)
4. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
5. Julianne Moore (May December) or Sandra Hüller (The Area of ​​Interest)

This category seems best placed to honor the musical and remake of The Color Purple. Sandra Hüller can hope that her chilling performance as the wife of an SS officer living in Auschwitz who turns a blind eye and ear to the Final Solution will allow her to attract additional votes in the leading actress section where she is in the running for Anatomy of a fall. The surprise could come from Rosamund Pike, an elegant aristo disconnected from reality and devoid of the slightest empathy in Saltburn.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig)
2. Our lives before (Celine Song)
3. Winter Break (David Hemingson)
4. Anatomy of a fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
5. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)

Everyone is on the same wavelength for this equal section which perhaps constitutes the most realistic chance of a statuette for the French Palme d’Or. Alone May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanic)
et Saltburn (Emerald Fennell) seem to be able to play the troublemaker and shake up this quinté.

Best adaptation

1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Poor Creatures (Tony McNamara)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
5. The Area of ​​Interest (Jonathan Glazer) or Without knowing us (Andrew Haigh)

The category where Christopher Nolan undoubtedly has the least risk of being snubbed and stealing the trophy, on March 10.

Best International Film

1. The Area of ​​Interest (United Kingdom)
2. The Snow Circle (Spain)
3. The Passion of Dodin Bouffant (France)
4. Olfa’s Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Teachers’ Room (Germany) or Dead leaves (Finland)

The honor and reputation for impartiality of the CNC are at stake. If The Passion of Dodin Bouffant that the institution preferred to Anatomy of a fall fails to secure a nomination, the disavowal will be terrible and the suspicions of pettiness and political revenge against the CNC reinforced. The Passion of Dodin Bouffant has two major assets to seduce across the Atlantic: the aura of French gastronomy and Juliette Binoche. Oscar winner for The English Patient two decades ago, the actress continued her forays into Hollywood and led an active campaign for Tran Anh Hung’s film.

Best Animated Film

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elementary (Pixar)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination) ou Chicken Run 2: La menace Nuggets (Netflix)

It’s difficult to separate the explosive beauty of the drawings from the new adventure of Spider-Man and the poetry of Hayao Miyazaki’s fable. Weighed down by the mediocre WishDisney will have to pass its turn and console itself with a selection ofelementary, from the Pixar subsidiary.

Best song

1. What Was I Made For? (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas
2. I’m Just Ken (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
3. It Never Went Away (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
4. Road to Freedom (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz
5. The Fire Inside (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren ou Dance the Night (Barbie) Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt

Who could steal the statuette from Greta Gerwig’s candy pink blockbuster, whose soundtrack continues to make the planet dance? Will the Academy be able to resist the temptation to name the anthem I’m just Ken just to have Ryan Gosling on stage performing this parody hit? In a year rich in musicals (Wonka, The Color Purple), the irony is to see none break through in this hand-sewn category.

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