2024-08-29 11:38:16
Ukraine It has many problems and it seems that dwarfs are growing in it border with Belarus, where Minsk has been gathering troops and armored vehicles for several weeks. The military maneuvers of Alexander Lukashenko have set alarms Kiev. Last Sunday, the Ukrainian authorities warned them Belarusian colleagues that they will take measures to protect their border if Lukashenko refuses to move his troops from the Ukrainian borders to get out of the range of Belarusian weapons.
The same Belarusian leaders pointed out that a third of its military They went to the border this summer. Lukashenko explained that these will only be military tactics, but this move is reminiscent of February 2022, when Russian and Belarusian troops held joint exercises just before the start of the attack. Days later the same Russian troops moved in guide to kiv to defeat it and launch them “special military service” which the Kremlin hopes to run in a few days.
With that memory in mind, Ukraine has warned its northern neighbor that, if it does not respect the border between the two states, Kyiv “will take it all. important action from your exercise the right to defend oneself“, according to the Kiev authorities in a statement. In the same document, they added that “all concentrated troops, military equipment and means of supply in Belarus will become under the target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces“In addition to regular troops from Minsk and special forces, Ukrainian intelligence suggests that there will also be groups of elites. mercenaries of the Wagner house on the southern border of Belarus.
Before the Ukrainian invasion of the region Kursk in order of August, it has already been said that the Belarusian army can belong directly to the Russian-Ukrainian War, something that is charged this August. But some analysts doubt that’s a likely scenario. “I would be suicidal for Minsk soldiers. The Ukrainians are especially prepared defense line on its border with Belarus,” military analyst and consultant Denys Kolesnyk told EL PERIÓDICO.
The Russian troops who came to attack the Ukrainian capital at the beginning of the war in February 2022 entered from the south of Belarus But what Lukashenko’s men are doing now seems to be something more no way. The relationship between the two Slavic countries is not going through the best time, as evidenced by the complaint of the President of Belarus himself about a Ukrainian plane that has entered his airspace in the middle of August or the communications from the Ukrainian Government to the neighbor his to the north. . “Lukashenko will everything is possible to avoid the formation of wars, because doing so may be the end of your term“, noted Kolesnyk.
brothers in arms
Lukashenko be a loyal friend of your Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Some even say “vassal“, although the same leader always insists that for him, the President of Russia, he is like a “elder brother“Family can be complicated and this case is no exception. Despite Belarusian determination to maintain full control of its fiefdom, its decisions often require approval from Moscow. When Ukrainian troops entered Kursk, they also flew alarms in Minsk. Some even talk about the possibility of Belarus entering the war to support the big brother in the front.
In addition to conventional warfare, in the so-called hybrid war Belarus is also a key player. He has repeatedly become a meeting for immigrants coming from the Middle East and Africa, benefiting from the resources of Moscow and Minsk to end up being used by both countries to worry neighbors like Poland, Lithuania and Finland. The security forces make it easy for them to reach the border, but when the border guards do not allow them to enter the EU, they are not allowed to return to Russia or Belarus either. These types of actions have been repeated in different events every year since 2021, the year in which a great event of this nature took place.
At that time, before the war and subsequent sanctions, Lukashenko had already proven his political survival to Putin. In 2020, when the democratic declarations took their toll the government will collapseRussia’s support is key to keeping it strong. Moreover, the country is economically dependent on Russia, which provides raw materials at reduced prices and soft loans that give oxygen to the country.
Safe world of sanctions
Although since 2022 it has shared many sanctions with Russia for its support of the Russian side in the war, Belarus is less sanctioned than its eastern neighbor. Thus, Minsk has become one of the gateways to Russia for imported goods. Flow that is not new. Already logged in Year 2014with the first sanctions against Moscow for the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsulaBelarus became an exporter of seafood and fish (related with EU origin) to Russia.
The desire of many Russians who cannot go to Turkey or the EU to continue consuming Western brands favors the existence of organized tours. Buses from Russian regions to shopping centers from Belarusian with the promise that you can buy products from the sun. Some of these trips are even promoted with the aim of getting a bank card that can be used worldwide, except for those of Russia, which from 2022 can only be used in the territory of Russia due to the disconnection of the Eurasian country from Swift process.
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