between Russia and Belarus, an interested and ambiguous relationship

Belarus, vassal of the Kremlin? After allowing Russia to use its territory as a launching pad to invade northern Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on February 24 accused kyiv of planning an attack on his country, adding that Minsk and Moscow would deploy Russian and Belarusian troops. One more step in a close, albeit ambiguous, relationship.

Belarus found itself under Russian domination in 1795. Centuries of intensive Russification followed, before « the natural death of the giant with feet of clay, the USSR, offers the gift of freedom to Belarus »as Arkadiusz Tieplakoff writes in the journal Studies.

Fall of the USSR

This independence, obtained in 1991, does not however sign the end of the common destiny of the two nations. In 1997, a treaty of union was concluded between Minsk and Moscow, before the treaty on the creation of the Union of Russia and Belarus in 1999.

Eventually, the two countries are therefore supposed to merge, an unattractive prospect in Belarus, which cannot address its gigantic neighbor on an equal footing. Integrating Russia would amount to being absorbed, while Moscow would benefit from this merger which would give it the possibility of extending its influence in Europe.

Since then, Alexander Lukashenko has therefore sought to save time. In 2009, he declared that the Union is “an unfinished project, but not a fiasco or a utopia”. In fact, Russia allows Belarus to survive by providing it with cheap gas and bank loans. This economic dependence also extends to oil: Russia provides the raw material, Belarus refines and exports.

The Russian language dominates

According to some estimates, the country’s GDP is 50% dependent on Russia. In addition, culturally, the Moscow language has become dominant. “Belarusian is only spoken in certain circles or in the opposition”, explains to BFMTV Yauheni Kryzhanouski, associate researcher at Cercec (Center for the Study of the Russian, Caucasian & Central European Worlds).

This interconnection, if it has not for the moment led to the envisaged union, has pushed Russia and Belarus to get closer on the institutional level. A customs union exists between Mink and Moscow, and their citizens can move freely between the territories of the two countries.

Alexander Lukashenko, the “last dictator in Europe”

In order not to completely abandon his sovereignty to Russia, Alexander Lukashenko has long wavered between Europe and its powerful neighbor. For example, he condemned the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, and only recognized it in 2021.

On the international scene, the country has also presented itself as neutral to assert its independence, in particular by hosting negotiations between Moscow and kyiv at the start of the war.

However, the internal situation in Belarus helped throw Alexander Lukashenko into the arms of Vladimir Putin. In 2020, while the one who is often presented as “Europe’s Last Dictator” was seeking a 6th term after twenty-six years in power, demonstrations had broken out in the country. The Kremlin had helped suppress them. « Lukashenko’s regime was in trouble, Russia pulled him out, explains Yauheni Kryzhanouski. This partly explains the current docility towards Russia. »