from our correspondent
WASHINGTON — Un eight day trip to cancel four years of Donald Trump. This was Joe Biden’s main purpose at the start of his first visit to Europe. The most difficult meeting, the one with Vladimir Putin, has also concluded the American president can be said to have achieved his goal. It wasn’t easy. It was not taken for granted. Biden revitalized the transatlantic link; obtained a course correction by NATO, including China’s challenge on the list of risks; he reopened the dialogue with Erdogan and, above all, activated a pragmatic confrontation with Putin.
In a sense as if Biden had repaired and polished the American foreign policy bodywork, at least dented out of the Trump season. But from now on Washington will have to measure up to the merits. Let’s start with the relationship with the Kremlin. Biden returns to the White House with two important commitments. Putin has agreed to launch cybersecurity consultations, while denying any involvement in recent attacks on American companies and infrastructures. Furthermore the confrontation on armaments, promoted to strategic diplomatic dialogue, will rise to the level. Working groups led by Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov will take care of it.
In face to face Biden warned the interlocutor: the next cyber incursion, we will respond in the same way. Do you hit an oil pipeline? We will do the same. a very harsh warning and also a change of pace. Until now, the Biden administration had limited itself to sanctioning only Moscow establishment figures, exactly as the Trump government had done. Fresh water for Putin. Ultimately, therefore, we are facing another bet. Trump had bet on elective affinities with the Moscow autocrat. Biden is confident in the possible convergence in some strategic areas: downsizing expenses to maintain gigantic arsenals; establish a pax or at least a cyber respite; collaborate in counter-terrorism; work together to stabilize the crisis areas: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya.
Biden also explained what his plan is in the medium term: China and Russia have conflicting structural interests. The United States can step in to prevent today’s collaboration between Beijing and Moscow from turning into a solid and dangerous geopolitical axis. But a theorem to be proved in the field. And here the difficulties begin, even for the European Union. The number one of the United States has asked overseas partners to form a league of anti-China democracies and to unite to contain Russian threats. The answer of French President Emmanuel Macron applies to everyone: we are one hundred percent with the United States when it comes to security, but we cannot eliminate economic relations with Moscow and Beijing.
It will be the theme that, in all likelihood, will accompany us as long as Biden stays in the White House. With several complications. The first: China and especially Russia divide the EU. On the one hand we have the anti-Putinism of the Baltic countries, of Poland, of the Czech Republic. On the other the softest attitude of Germany, Italy and partly France, to the extreme of Hungary led by the ultra-Russian Viktor Orbn.
The second: safety and economy overlap more and more. Just think of telecommunications, the 5G network, technologies for the green revolution, batteries, the chips needed to build products with the highest added value, from mobile phones to cars. And so on. In all these cases the strength of the market could push Europeans more towards China than towards the United States. an open competition that will become even tighter in perspective, given the tumultuous growth of Xi Jinping’s country even in the most innovative sectors.
If Washington wants to take away the Chinese and reduce Russia’s influence, it will have to offer concrete alternatives. For example: to intervene more decisively in Libya, which for the moment does not seem on the agenda. Or: give substance to massive investments in European countries, while the G7 ended with a hyperbolic plan worth 40 trillion dollars in favor of the neediest states. No one, however, has explained where all this money will come from, given that the US and the European Union are already raking in the resources available to revive their economies. Or again: the truce of duties between the United States and Europe is good. Biden pushes for a comprehensive trade deal between the two sides of the Atlantic. But able to convince the French and Italians to accept the import of agro-industrial products made in the USA? It seems a sideways detail, but no US administration can conclude a trade deal that does not include agriculture and the food sector.
After the Geneva Summit, a phase that is as interesting as it is complicated opens up, precisely because President Biden has raised the global threshold of expectations, including psychological ones. In this scenario, there will be a need for pragmatic rulers, bridges capable of finding solutions. Also for this reason, in Washington, Mario Draghi is looked upon with great interest, albeit within the consolidated hierarchy of relations with the Old Continent. On this it is better not to be under any illusions. Also in Biden’s radar, before Italy for now come Great Britain, Germany and France.
June 16, 2021 (change June 16, 2021 | 22:48)
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