2023-09-21 12:26:58
“Closer and closer.” This is how the Saudi crown prince has described, Mohammed Bin Salmanthe current state of a possible normalization with Israel. In the first interview with American television since 2019, the de facto ruler of the kingdom has spoken about the conditions for this to happen, putting on the table the palestinian issue. Furthermore, he has also mentioned his intention to obtain a arma nuclear if Iran I had it too. A few hours after the first meeting between the American president, Joe Bidenand the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin NetanyahuSince he came to power, Bin Salmán’s words on Fox News have coincided with the speech of his future allies.
The interview of what is commonly known as MBS takes place at the same time as the Biden Administration continues with its efforts to mediate between the two regional powers and its two main partners in the region until achieving a historic agreement. During these complicated negotiations, the Israelis are expected to make some concessions to the Palestinians and, in return, Riyadh gets United States security guarantees and true nuclear aid civilian that the kingdom has sought. “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important,” said MBS when asked what it would take to achieve a normalization agreement.
“We have to solve that part […] and we hope that the negotiations reach somewhere that makes life easier for the Palestinians and that Israel becomes an actor in the Middle East,” he added. He also spoke about his new relations with Iran. A few months ago, the two great regional powers put an end to seven years of disputes and resumed their ties by opening their diplomatic missions. Still, MBS has expressed concern about his old friend getting a nuclear weapon. “That is a bad play; If you use it, you will have to have a big fight with the rest of the world,” he has warned the Iranians. “If they get one, we have to get it, for safety reasons and for the balance of power in the Middle East, but we don’t want to see that,” he concluded.
Benefits for all three
A normalization agreement could bring great benefits to the three actors involved. The Americans argue that this regional mega-agreement could eliminate a possible source of tension in the Arab-Israeli conflict, strengthen the bulwark against Iran and counter China’s incursions into the Gulf. For Biden, it would be a highlight foreign policy victory while seeking re-election in November 2024. The United States would have to give in to MBS’s demands such as the treaty that commits Washington to defend the kingdom in case of attackand the granting of advanced weapons and assistance for a civil nuclear program. Some U.S. officials fear it could be cover for a nuclear weapons program to counter Iran.
Furthermore, Biden may encounter some obstacles at homesince a treaty of these characteristics with Saudi Arabia, a country that he himself called “pariah“after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, could be problematic in the eyes of his compatriots. This mutual defense pact would be similar to those that the United States maintains with Japan o North Korea, almost at the same level as agreements with European States. Despite the timid changes in the Saudi regime, there are still many high-ranking lawmakers in Washington, including prominent Democrats, who see the Saudi government and MBS as unreliable partners who hardly care about American interests or human rights.
“In four or five months”
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For Israel, normalization would mean almost definitive acceptance in the Arab world. Both Bin Salman and Biden know that they cannot sign anything if the Jewish state does not commit to making significant concessions to the Palestinians to keep alive the prospects for a State in the occupied territories. But the current far-right government Netanyahu is not very willing to give in. “The gaps can be bridged,” said the Minister of Foreign Affairs, So Cohen, to Israel Army Radio. “It will take time, but there is progress,” he added, hours after the interview with MBS was broadcast.
“I think there’s certainly a chance that, in the first quarter of 2024, In four or five months, we can reach a point where the details are finalized [de un acuerdo]”, he dared to predict. From New York, the president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisí, has described the impending normalization as “a stab in the back of the Palestinian people and of the resistance of the Palestinians.” “The beginning of a relationship between the zionist regime and any country in the region, if it is with the objective of providing security to the Zionist regime, will certainly not achieve it,” Raisí said at a press conference within the framework of the UN General Assembly.
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